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Slaven Bilic gave an insight into his thinking around the time that his Croatia team beat Schteeve McLaren’s England.

He was quoted talking about the English fixation on formations and 4-4-2. He has described his belief that the shape of the team is what is important during the various phases of the game. This is especially so in transition from defence to attack.

His decision to put Antonio in at right back and then wing back was a failure. It is something that worked on occasion last season and is an effective tactic against teams with very attacking fullbacks. As a standard week-in-week-out tactic, it just did not work.

The reasoning behind it appeared to be to support the playmaker, Dimitri Payet. Yet it hampered the team so much as to leave virtually any chance to be created on the field to have to come from the unhappy Frenchman.




Despite his obvious lack of va va voom, Payet was still creating chances galore. Sadly, there were rarely any players on hand to regularly convert them. Antonio, from his various positions, got on the end of three of them to add to the goal tally. No one else managed to be on hand to get shots in to trouble the opposition goalkeeper.

The lack of quality balls played into the opposition box has been a huge factor in the team’s struggles this season. Add in misfiring strikers and an unbalanced defensive shape and it is little wonder we failed to make an offensive impact, early on.

The number #27 has moved back home. The past two games have seen six points gained and six goals scored. The shape is more compact in an almost Allardycian 4-3-3 which can morph to a 4-4-2 in transition. Add to this the continued footballing journey of Michail Antonio.

He has showed that he could lead the line in a couple of games. He has now been feted by Slav to be played ‘best as a striker’. It’s not a traditional 4-4-2 but the in-game switch in transition from 4-3-3 is a smooth one. Antonio could be the player we’ve been craving: a striker to make the team better.

He has the attributes. He has to show that he can be clinical. If he can grab the goals then it could save this club £30m on a striker. And this is the decision that the board have to start to think about now. More change or concentrate on succession?

Every player and member of staff at a football club should be constantly looking to improve and show their worth. At the time of writing this there are only a few hours left in the January transfer window. It doesn’t look like West Ham will be doing any further business. So that means that the collective unit that is the playing and coaching staff of the club have sixteen games left to show what they are all about.

We are no longer a newly promoted team. As a club we have had a couple of fantastic half seasons over the past two years. That may be a little bit unfair on Slav for last season as it was only the last ten games where we began to show decline.

Conceding an average of two goals a game over this period was something that should have been prioritised over the summer. Little did we know the dramas unfolding in the background concerning our Balon d’or nominee and what an effect they would have. There should be no such distractions come the 2017 close season.

The current team has been built on a solid foundation that began with Allardyce. They look most comfortable and effective in a 4-3-3 shape. With only situational tactical changes there is unlikely to be a dramatic move from this.




There have been accusations of a seemingly scattergun approach to transfer targets over the Board’s tenure. There may be signs that this has slowed. There is little doubt that David Sullivan wanted desperately to buy a top striker to begin shaping the team around. Alexandre Lacazette, Carlos Bacca, and Michy Batshuayi were the targets.

We didn’t get any of them. The one we got, Simone Zaza, failed. He had never shown in his career the aptitude to be able to play in way he was asked. Andre Ayew came in to keep Payet happy but despite a golden run of half a dozen games at Swansea, he is an attacking midfielder and not a striker.

It certainly looks to be that when Andy Carroll is fit, he will continue to be the main man selected to lead the line for Slav. His attributes are there to be seen. Antonio’s latest development into a second striker could be the future if the big Geordie can stay fit. However, I doubt there are many holding their breaths for that eventuality.

Scott Hogan and Jermain Defoe were both chased this window. The latter was not for sale at an acceptable price. Slav then decided that Hogan wasn’t for him. Could this be that Hogan simply would not play if Carroll was fit?

The Geordie has two years left on his contract (with a two year option). Sakho, due back in a month, has one year left on his contract after this.

I don’t think there would be many fans that are wholly comfortable with the prospect of these two players having such a hold over the current transfer dealings. That appears to be the case. To go in a totally different direction to Andy Carroll would mean when fit, either he or the new striker would be benched.

Now if the club finds a better player than Carroll it is understandable. A player such as Ismail Slimani would arguably give him a run for his money. What fee he would command after signing for Leicester this season for £30m is anyone’s guess. I doubt he’d be available or a realistic target to be sourced.

It would be a brave move from the manager and board to go in a different direction and invest in players that would relegate Carroll to the bench as an impact sub.




There are obviously many different types of striker out there. In the absence of a Lacazette or a Batshuayi, the next level down has been restricted by the board to those with EPL experience.

Callum Wilson is arguably similar in style to Diafra Sakho but hasn’t lit up the scoring charts. Andre Gray is another who knows the league and is a proper handful. Both he and Wilson can play a bit and provide mobility and pace in the final third. Neither possesses the attributes of a big pony tailed Geordie number #9.

The other big option would be to upgrade on what Michail Antonio is currently giving the team: Versatility, pace, power and the ability to get around the pitch. If there is a player out there that can do this then I would suggest he is a must buy. I am sure ours and every other club would want him.

It is the manner of how we go about what we are trying to achieve that needs to be looked at. I am an advocate of the modern incarnation of succession through analytics and player development.

We have a successful way of playing with players who have got the team in and around the top four over the past couple of years. The same players have managed to excel in a diamond under the previous manager. They have also won games under Slav when three at the back tactically demanded.

The base shape remains a 4-3-3 with a sole centre forward supported by two or three attacking midfielders. Antonio’s versatility is huge bonus. Snodgrass and Ayew can also both play in the attacking midfielder/support striker role.

Future recruitment has to take into account what players are currently on the books. To go in a different route and sign players who are very different from what we have means to play in a different way. To invest in that means moving away from what we have successfully bedded down in the league since promotion.




It would be a brave move that would require a lot of successful recruitment.

After this season we will embark on a season without even any dreams of European football. The intention is surely to begin to advance into the top seven or eight league places and stay there.

Succession recruitment would be for us to look at several options on each player:

• Can we replace them with a better player who fits in?

• Can we adapt our squad to play a different way if that player doesn’t fit in to the 4-4-3 / 4-4-2?

• Can we find a player who will develop to challenge the current player in that position?

• Can we find a player who will be an effective short term understudy?

I liked the idea of signing Scott Hogan. He is an analytic’s fan’s dream. He takes shots from dangerous positions and converts chances.

I equally like that Slav didn’t want him. It shows that he wasn’t going to play him and that he felt it would have been a waste. The team would not have been adapted to accommodate Hogan. Carroll, no doubt, would have been the first choice up top.

What makes me uncomfortable is that the decision appears to have been made so late and so publicly. Hogan was clearly a player highlighted to be able to be on hand to get chances and convert them to goals. His linking appears to be an almost knee jerk decision to help an ailing side. That the ship appears to have been recently righted has rendered this player no longer being required.

The current forwards are Carroll, Sakho, Antonio with back up from Ashley Fletcher and Jonathan Calleri. The first two have car crash injury records but remain first choices. Antonio is willing but as yet unproven as an EPL centre forward. Fletcher is crying out for a loan move to develop.

Calleri appears to be a Sully punt. He has shown some skill and gets in some good positions. That he has only scored one hugely deflected goal, however, speaks volumes about him.

If the club are unlikely to be able to improve on a fit Andy Carroll then an effective and willing understudy is needed for one to two years. This is the length of his current contract. Once secured a young player to be developed should be sourced. The same should then read for every player in the squad.

Now the player does not have to be the exact same type of player. He must however, fill in the role that the main man does. With Carroll it would mean to be able bring other players into play and create space. Ideally he’d need to be good in the air and be a goal threat.

This should be under constant review. It would solve the dramas of chasing big targets that never arrive and being left with whoever returns the calls. It would certainly take away the scattergun approach. It would solve changing the whole way the team play to suit one player.

That’s succession management. It’s what Southampton has done over the past few years. Its how they have managed to sell on their best players and replace them. It is more than just having a Director of Football. It is putting a system in place separating the board from the football operations of the club.




Looking at the squad it is the forwards that appear to be the key issue. Thirty odd attempts by the board to find a successful forward. And yet this team has managed to show it is capable of attacking the European places. The issue is more than just having our main two forwards often out injured. It is not having a system in place to adequately replace them when they are.

Come the summer, both main men will have less than two years left on their contracts. They will both be arguably affordable to replace bookwise. Sakho would be entering his final year. Carroll’s book price would be £5m (£15m / six year contract). Of course his c£4.1m wages over that period have to be taken into account.

With successful recruitment, their periods of injury could have been covered by good understudies and young players with potential.

It appears that Tony Henry’s suggestions rate high in analytics. By the end of this 16-game run there should be an opportunity to successfully provide adequate back up to the Irons’ patched up main strikers. If not, there should be the financial flexibility to be able to replace them.

Either way, having a plan in place to cover for whoever wears the shirt in the short and long term should be invested in. No single player being out or unhappy should then be able to so effect the team.

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