Brexit referendum result aftermath

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bubbles1966
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:I would listen to someone with a proven track record of predicting what is going to happen.
Yep.

The football world is full of people with their 'badges'. There aren't many with a trophy cabinet to match.

That reads across to a great many professions with economics up there with psephology as a place where the record of the 'experts' in recent times is risible.

The "offer" looks like it will be not to pull the plug on our EU contributions between March 2019 and December 2020. The national recipients won't want an income reduction, the net contributors won't want a bigger bill.

The EU might say sod it, they might not. It's a potential source of internal discontent and discord among the 27.

Meanwhile, our economy continues to do very well though I read that Richmond is suffering big house price discounts according to Zoopla.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

The Boleyn Hound wrote: If the UK Government asked my advise on how long it will take to create the new Customs computer system that's needed for WTO rules (and this type of question is a common scenario in my role), I'd say something along the lines of (with "normal"-size teams):
6-9 months to analyse business requirements
18-24 months development time
6-9 months integration with third party systems
6 months testing

At the cost of an absolute fortune (millions).
So your expert advice would be you don't know how long it will take or how much it will cost, are you sure you aren't an economist? (just joking :) )

To be honest its been a while since I was billed out at a few hundred quid an hour as an 'IT expert' but from experience the real experts of prediction tended to be the people who would admit they didn't know what was going to happen. Looking at your scenario I think my first question would be can't the expert designed system we presumably have in place to trade with China, USA, Brazil, Russia etc on a WTO basis be used? And if not why wasn't it designed to accommodate new deals, we presumably add trade deals at various points even in the EU.

Lots of people have expert knowledge and plenty of experience but its still a best guess when predicting the unknowable. You can't take past experience and play it forward in a system as fluid as finance, never mind if you want to factor in the thousands of other aspects. What the economists did was about all they could, they took now and ran it forward with essentially one change, from that they said a beats b. Its not that simple, the whole country will make changes that play into the outcome. If they had said this is what will happen if we stay in and left it at that at least that had merit, it would probably still have been wrong mind you. Going on to say this is what will happen if a lot of things we don't know happen is guesswork and opinion nothing more.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

The Boleyn Hound wrote: They look at us and they see us arguing internally about what we want from Brexit. 15 MONTHS after the vote.
delbert wrote:
This is the part that may well turn out to be the most damaging, caused in the main by remainers with a public voice.

Given Brexit won by a tiny majority, did you REALLY expect people that were passionately Remain to just leave politics, leave the media, and disappear never to be heard of again? If so, with respect I'd say that's naive to the extreme. As much as Farage called for a second referendum in the event of a 48/52 loss for his side, Remainers want, expect and have the right to a say in the future we've been dragged into. Democracy is not only at the ballot box, it happens everyday.
The Leave side should have had a strong plan of action in the event of a win for their side. After all, some of them wanted it for 50 years! The Remain side should have grilled them on this during the debate to shine the spotlight on the fact that there was no plan of action.


As you have alluded to, we need to be approaching the EU with a united voice (something I believe May has just sorted with her cabinet), meaning the detractors and remain supporting media should either be reluctantly supporting brexit or keeping quiet. To continually undermine the process will be damaging to the countries interests, which could be termed as traitorous.
The media and other detractors should be keeping quiet or they would be traitors??? I've never heard anything like it. Does that include me - am I a TRAITOR for pointing things out that I believe to be true? It is more traitorous to say nothing when you see your country going down the wrong path.

But I do love how all the problems of Brexit are actually the faults of those that supported the opposite of Brexit!



They see us making absolutely no preparation for WTO rules.

Don't we already trade with countries outside the EU on WTO rules? Does this mean the EU will also have to get ready to trade with us on WTO rules?

Yes they would have to organise to trade with us on WTO rules, and they would be damaged by it too. But we would be much more damaged by it and they know it.

The fact that we have not begun preparing means it is seen as an idle threat. Even a 3 year old child learns to ignore the idle threat.

Last edited by The Boleyn Hound on Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Nobody knows anything.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

Devout Remainers are probably less prevalent in the UK than radical Islamists now. It's a very peculiar obsession.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by the pink palermo »

Dear EU

We're leaving

Bon Voyage :wink:

Regards

Pinky
.

Seriously, how hard can it be ?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

Ain't that the truth.....

It's almost as though the 170+ countries that are not in the EU, who we don't have open borders with, who we have WTO/customs arrangements with, who we do most trading with don't exist.

If you sail away from the EU, you fall off the sides.....flat earthers for Europe.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

It's no obsession, it's being interested in the future of my country and by extension of my own life.

My country is careering towards an unknown future in the biggest change in a century.

But yeah, probably best not to think about it. That would be traitorous.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by delbert »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:It's no obsession, it's being interested in the future of my country and by extension of my own life.

My country is careering towards an unknown future in the biggest change in a century.

But yeah, probably best not to think about it. That would be traitorous.
By debating and arguing on here you're hardly in the public eye with a public voice, so you're not in a position to be publicly threatening or damaging any possible deal. You yourself rightly observed that they are watching us arguing internally over Brexit, it will no doubt weaken our position if it's not reigned in.
Brexit is happening one way or another, publicly arguing over how best to achieve it is bad enough, having the likes of Cable and Blair (for example) desperately trying to sabotage it could be damaging in the long term.
If we come through Brexit in a position weakened through their attempts to undermine or sabotage the process then, depending on motive, their actions could easily be described as traitorous........
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:My country is careering towards an unknown future in the biggest change in a century.
This country has been engaged in two world wars in the last century and threatened with nuclear armaggeddon during the cold war.

A few changes at customs on several years' notice is hardly 'careering' towards anything particularly dramatic. Image
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

^^^^ It also joined the then Common Market, that was a fairly big step I seem to remember.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

delbert wrote: By debating and arguing on here you're hardly in the public eye with a public voice, so you're not in a position to be publicly threatening or damaging any possible deal. You yourself rightly observed that they are watching us arguing internally over Brexit, it will no doubt weaken our position if it's not reigned in.
Brexit is happening one way or another, publicly arguing over how best to achieve it is bad enough, having the likes of Cable and Blair (for example) desperately trying to sabotage it could be damaging in the long term.
If we come through Brexit in a position weakened through their attempts to undermine or sabotage the process then, depending on motive, their actions could easily be described as traitorous........
1. Au contraire. The pub debate is the starting point for political discourse in this country.
2. You will not "reign in" politicians or other groups who are vehemently against Brexit. This is something that is without precedent in times of peace, so ridiculous to think it would happen now. Those fighting a hard brexit are SINCERE in their fight for a safer brexit.
3. I want us to be presented with a referendum on the deal we are offered vs. WTO rules vs. Exiting Brexit. If my arguments for this turn out to be string enough, others will join me and it has more chance of becoming reality.
4. I can already see the excuses being prepared for a bad Brexit. It will not be that Brexit was a bad idea. It will be that the EU bullied us and that we have traitors in our midsts. i.e. it was the Remainers' fault!
5. It is the Cabinet that is split. An ex-PM and a newspaper editor don't come into it.

Instead, how about accepting that our hand is not as strong as we were told it was, and now we are seeing the reality of that played out in slow motion?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Collison Theory »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:It's no obsession, it's being interested in the future of my country and by extension of my own life.

My country is careering towards an unknown future
in the biggest change in a century.

But yeah, probably best not to think about it. That would be traitorous.
The future is always unknown. The biggest lie we're told is that anyone can predict it with a degree of accuracy. Put it this way, has anyone ever done it in the past? The brightest minds have often tried to predict the state of the world in a few decades time. How many could even predict something like the internet, which looking back does seem predictable? There are too many unpredictable factors.

So yeah, when you were told "Brexit will lead to an unknown future" you were told the truth, but in the most misleading way possible.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Rays Rock »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:IMy country is careering towards an unknown future in the biggest change in a century.
Where as staying within the EU your country is careering toward a very obvious future of collapsed and unfit public services, overcrowding, low wage increase for the many, with no real opportunity to shape our own future due to a backdrop of freedom of movement. As a result of all that a much poorer quality of life, which is already poorer than it was only 15 years ago.

Fortunately, now you can always blame the demise upon brexit can't you.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by sendô »

Always ignore what the "experts" tell you. Unless of course those experts agree with you.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:IMy country is careering towards an unknown future in the biggest change in a century.
Rays Rock wrote:
Where as staying within the EU your country is careering toward a very obvious future of collapsed and unfit public services, overcrowding, low wage increase for the many, with no real opportunity to shape our own future due to a backdrop of freedom of movement. As a result of all that a much poorer quality of life, which is already poorer than it was only 15 years ago.

Fortunately, now you can always blame the demise upon brexit can't you.
Hang on, I thought Brexit was meant to improve everything? Why are we talking about making excuses for a future brexit demise all of a sudden?

There are multiple peer-reviewed reports, hidden by Theresa May for political reasons, that show immigration does not have a big effect on wages.
If this is one of the main reasons you continue to support Brexit, then you should be able to provide non-anecdotal evidence that immigration does indeed greatly push wages down.
And you should also be able to explain why our politicians did not halt the 50% of immigration that came from outside of the EU to this country.
Could it be that wages are low because of the nature of OUR system? Could it be that non-EU immigration was not reduced because, contrary to what some tabloids will tell you, it is actually beneficial to this country?

Could it be that the EU has got a lot of the blame because the capital is in Brussels and not London? When Murdoch speaks to the UK Prime Minister, she listens. When he speaks to the EU, they don't.

As I understand it, we hold all the cards (yet today we are blinking first).
We have Taken Back Control (but today Theresa May will be practically begging the EU to have mercy on us)
We will have an extra £350m a week to spend (yet in reality we will have our offer of PAYING £20bn a year turned down).
I was told that German car companies would not let their leaders give us a bad deal (yet days before the German elections, Brexit has not even been a topic).

When it costs me a lot more to buy clothes and food, when the NHS has a severe shortage of nurses, when The Troubles opens a new chapter, and when it is widely acknowledged that we in 2020 are in a worse situation than we were in 2015, then yes, I will be blaming Brexit.

If we end up injecting 350m into the NHS, if we have a fantastic new trade deal with the EU/China/USA/?? that sees a rennaissance in British power, then I will eat my (Made in Barnsley) hat.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

In addition to Theresa May suppressing reports that show immigration does not have a big downward effect on wages, Michael Gove is now being accused of suppressing a report into possible increases in food prices after Brexit.

His response to a FOI request into information on food prices was:

“We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosure of information concerning the increase in food prices in the run up to the UK leaving the European Union and the first five years after the UK’s departure,”

“However, there is a strong public interest in withholding the information, in this instance.”

The excuse given was that Brexit negotiations are still ongoing and policy still being defined.

Until we have closed the door behind us for good, we are not allowed to know what DEFRA thinks will be paying for food in a post-EU world.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by delbert »

There's also reports outlining that immigration does have a negative impact on the wages of those towards the lower end of the pay scale.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigr ... migration/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'd rather trust anecdotal evidence from people I know than figures in a report produced by someone I don't with who knows what agenda. People I know include those in the building trade, a cab driver and a cleaner, tell them that mass immigration (from both in and out of the EU) hasn't suppressed their wages and they'll laugh in your face.........
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

^^ Yes - a small effect on wages at the lower end. But otherwise, immigration is not an important factor.
Even if it was, why have we had to leave the EU? Why didn't we just halt the 50% of immigration that came from outside of the EU? Nobody seems to be able to answer that one.

Your cabby and your cleaner mates might well believe that immigration has kept their wages low. But they're wrong, says the evidence in report after report. Therefore, what are they basing their opinion on? How do you know they're not pushing an agenda?

Show me the evidence that says immigration does greatly push down wages. True evidence, not just a taxi driver moaning abut immigration.

I wonder if you WANT to believe that immigration is a problem, and so you've chosen to ignore the evidence that says it's not, that says it's needed and actually pushes UP wages, and you've decided to believe above everyone else a man who drives cars around London for a living and someone who cleans the bog at work over facts and figures.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

May has started speaking in Florence...
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