Brexit referendum result aftermath

[The Boleyn Hound]

And really, who cares?

You seem to care quite a lot!

Coercive union (military-enforced empire) is patently NOT the same as a union with voluntary membership, and you know that.

Hitler wanted the former, Churchill wanted the latter.

Anyway I'm bored of this pointless debate, if you don't like the EU then you'll say what you can to associate it with the Nazis, I understand that, it's Godwin's Law.

I'll just leave this here:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europ ... uring-myth

[monkeyhanger]

[quote="bubbles1966"]AfD - essentially the German Nationalist Party - have seemingly moved into 3rd in Germany on 13-14% of the vote, more than UKIP ever got.[/quote]

It has been calculated that under proportional representation UKIP would have got 83 seats in the 2015 election so not that far from the AFD's 87. We all know what happened to the UKIP vote in this years election. The thing that far right parties seem to have a habit of doing once they make a significant gain is to collapse in a bout of in-fighting and conflict. If you read about AFD's recent history the seeds are already there.

You did the same analysis of the Dutch and French elections earlier this year saying the results were an indication of an anti-EU anti-immigrant rising tide. They are largely protest votes that dissipate once these parties are put under the spotlight. The sentiment across the continent is overwhelmingly pro-EU (Brexit has boosted this) and if Schengen is reformed which Macron, Merkel and other EU leaders have indicated they are willing to do the immigration issue reduces also.

Interestingly AFD got 22% of the vote in the former East Germany where there are far fewer immigrants than in West Germany where it got 11% of the votes and most of the migrants reside. This is very like the UK where swathes of the North (like my home town Hartlepool) where they have very low levels of immigration voted Brexit due to immigration concerns.

[Collison Theory]

You seem to care quite a lot!

Coercive union (military-enforced empire) is patently NOT the same as a union with voluntary membership, and you know that.

Hitler wanted the former, Churchill wanted the latter.

Anyway I'm bored of this pointless debate, if you don't like the EU then you'll say what you can to associate it with the Nazis, I understand that, it's Godwin's Law.

I'll just leave this here:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europ ... uring-myth

My point is, you're using the dodgy logic, just like those making that Hitler point. Churchill supported some form of a united Europe. You then use this to claim he supported "European Union" (with capitals).

The major leap being made here is that just because a historical figure supports the general idea of European integration, they would support the specific institution of the European Union.

[Rays Rock]

Talking of German Nationalist movements !

So, 1st Brexit, next it was Le Pen 2nd place in the French Presidential Elections and now in Germany an anti EU movement party gains a strong 3rd place from absolutely nowhere.

Yet, we were told by Junker that the movements toward right of centre / nationalist politics was so 2016 !
Also Martin Schulz former President of the EU Parliament up until this year, has seen his parties vote return it's worst support since 1949 and will no longer form part of a coalition government in Germany.

So what will happen now ?
Well i suspect we will here a bit of the old, "ve vill listen and learn" from Merkel. She will probably form a coalition with 4th and 5th placed parties, thus allowing Schulz and his party to become the official opposition and isolate the anti EU ADF party. You'll also hear Merkel start using slogans and phrases directly lifted from the ADF campaign that she formerly denounced as racist speak, just as May has done by using Farage speak, in a bid to try and steal back votes and weaken the ADF.

Meanwhile, the EU will say something along the lines of "ve vill listen and learn" (can you see a pattern developing here !), and then ignore it and continue to shove it's head back in the sand.

Next up we have Italy, where i suspect the anti EU Five Star party (who are way ahead in every poll) will come at very worst a close 2nd place and a very real chance of winning. A result either way will destabilise the already weak Italian banking sector which obviously uses the EU as it's primary currency.

In my opinion, it is the strong 2nd and 3rd places in all of these elections that are more dangerous for the EU than them all winning. Simply as it won't urge them to reform either quick enough or even at all.
For the EU their ignorance is undoubtedly fueling their own demise.
By 2022 at the very latest, Merkel will probably not be German Chancelor (I doubt she will stand). The UK will have untethered itself to the EU and Italy will either be looking down the barrel of the prospect of the anti EU party winning outright or will have had 4 years of them in power !

When we ultimately pay up to the EU, we should include a caveat that states the money be returned if the EU is defunct or on it's last legs within a 25 year period.

Anyway, hands up anyone who thinks the EU is in good shape for the next decade?

[The Boleyn Hound]

Interestingly AFD got 22% of the vote in the former East Germany where there are far fewer immigrants than in West Germany where it got 11% of the votes and most of the migrants reside. This is very like the UK where swathes of the North (like my home town Hartlepool) where they have very low levels of immigration voted Brexit due to immigration concerns.

Add to that that Trump did well in rural areas and poorly in the big metropolitan areas.

[Rays Rock]

It has been calculated that under proportional representation UKIP would have got 83 seats in the 2015 election so not that far from the AFD's 87. We all know what happened to the UKIP vote in this years election. The thing that far right parties seem to have a habit of doing once they make a significant gain is to collapse in a bout of in-fighting and conflict. If you read about AFD's recent history the seeds are already there.

You did the same analysis of the Dutch and French elections earlier this year saying the results were an indication of an anti-EU anti-immigrant rising tide. They are largely protest votes that dissipate once these parties are put under the spotlight. The sentiment across the continent is overwhelmingly pro-EU (Brexit has boosted this) and if Schengen is reformed which Macron, Merkel and other EU leaders have indicated they are willing to do the immigration issue reduces also.

Interestingly AFD got 22% of the vote in the former East Germany where there are far fewer immigrants than in West Germany where it got 11% of the votes and most of the migrants reside. This is very like the UK where swathes of the North (like my home town Hartlepool) where they have very low levels of immigration voted Brexit due to immigration concerns.

The problem is with this is that although the parties involved may well disappear, the feeling within those who voted for them will always be within them.
Their opposition can celebrate all they like, as i said earlier, these close calls are ultimately much worse for the EU than them turning into wins. The established parties will use whatever tactics they can to appease and lie directly to those people. Once these people realise they have once again been lied to and once again ignored the problem gets bigger and bigger.
Head in sand is not the right tactic here.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

This is very like the UK where swathes of the North (like my home town Hartlepool) where they have very low levels of immigration voted Brexit due to immigration concerns.

I do wonder about these stats at times. Barnsley is officially the same, very little immigration, its been used since Brexit to imply voting leave was just stupid and racist. While there is certainly some of that there are also a relatively large number of new eastern european food and goods shops in the centre of town. Roughly 1 in 6 shops from my quick straw poll last week, barclays have eastern european translators on hand as do M&S and the post office (the 3 places I went into). So if the immigrant population is ~1% as the official stats say, who are these places catering to and who is buying all the Polish goods?

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

Meanwhile, any comments on whether the financial crisis has fuelled a rise in nationalism?

I can start you off. According to a study of more than 800 elections around the world, spanning 150 years, every single financial crisis is followed by a 10-year surge in support for far-right populist parties.

This is not my gut feeling or what my cab driver told me. This is the conclusion of research into the data,

Haven't picked through the entire thing but if it follows the same pattern as the UK 'data' it looks a bit cherry picked to me.

For a start its not every single financial crisis in every country. For the UK it picks 6 that count and ignores 5 or 6 (some run into each other so hard to be accurate) others. Apparently the UK great depression isn't a financial crisis in this context, nor is the great depression itself (although that is counted for the USA). Both periods where the communist party of GB for instance doubled its vote share. WW2 doesn't count as a financial crisis for anybody, again though its a period that saw a rise in the left and extreme left.

There is also the definition of extreme left, extreme right and nationalism. Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein count extreme left rather than nationalist while the SNP doesn't appear at all. So are their recent surges a rise in nationalism or a boost for the left?

Through the 1745 financial events they have coded the mean vote share for the far right is 5.53% and for the left its 5.56%.

Since the 2007 crash off the top of my head The USA elected Obama, Greece the socialists, France chose Hollande, Germany keep electing Merkel, Canada have gone socialist, portugal, italy, romania all have left wing govts. We haven't been able to make our minds up enough to pick a govt with any great power.

[the pink palermo]

At what point will Juncker et al acknowledge the EU in it's current form is not meeting the needs of far too many people in the major economies it purports to represent ?

The Netherlands
Germany
UK
France

Each have had elections where the crucial issue was clearly the mass movement of people .Each has had as a minimum a protest vote of some sort .

The EU leadership are in denial .

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

At what point will Juncker et al acknowledge the EU in it's current form is not meeting the needs of far too many people in the major economies it purports to represent ?

Never.

I see Labour are getting themselves in a pickle again and have had to stifle debate on it. The sight of the politburo singing oooh Jeremy Corbyn probably helped eased delegates worries though. Corbyns stance appears to be quite radical, it seems he wants to keep free movement and leave the single market.

[sendô]

At what point will Juncker et al acknowledge the EU in it's current form is not meeting the needs of far too many people in the major economies it purports to represent ?

You want politicians to admit to something that would see their power eroded?

[DaveWHU1964]

I sometimes wonder, if we do ever leave the European Union, what will be the new catch-all excuse for our problems. Probably "Remoaners"

Well whatever the excuse is it I'm absolutely positive that it won't be attributed to the economic model of choice. That. Is. Faultless.

[Collison Theory]

Interestingly AFD got 22% of the vote in the former East Germany where there are far fewer immigrants than in West Germany where it got 11% of the votes and most of the migrants reside. This is very like the UK where swathes of the North (like my home town Hartlepool) where they have very low levels of immigration voted Brexit due to immigration concerns.

Yeah, that's pretty typical for anti-immigration movements. It's something they really don't like talking about. In fact people often think the exact opposite- "bloody liberals in their fancy areas don't realise what it's like having immigrants around". Obviously there are plenty of exceptions, but people living together tends to soften opinions. Even bigoted people I do know tend to make allowances, like "black people are troublemakers, not Dave up the pub, he's one of the good ones, but overall..."- you can see how it's the first step towards progress.

[Rays Rock]

Maybe !
Or maybe on their travels have noticed how awful it is to live in an overpopulated town stuffed full of foreigners and realise that at the current rate it's heading there way soon.

i mean it's not something you would wish for if you currently enjoy where you live is it ?

[Collison Theory]

Maybe !
Or maybe on their travels have noticed how awful it is to live in an overpopulated town stuffed full of foreigners and realise that at the current rate it's heading there way soon.

i mean it's not something you would wish for if you currently enjoy where you live is it ?

The problem with that logic, is that surely those who lived in this town would feel more strongly about this issue than just those who visit it?

Honestly, I'm from the countryside, these areas aren't full of progressive types (hence basically the whole countryside is blue...), there just isn't racial tension because there are basically only white British people around.

I'm maybe not the best person to ask, because I just returned from a short time living abroad. I'd be a bit of a hypocrite if I condemned others for doing the same thing. I think for most people there is a balance, they're happy to accept incomers as long as the rate of change isn't too intense. Obviously most of us have some kind of link to East London. There's some nasty views there (Barking is an exception to the rule mentioned, a highly multi cultural area that elected BNP councillors), but at the same time some form of kickback is almost inevitable with demographics change so quickly.

[The Boleyn Hound]

So, Theresa May's Florence speech on Friday was billed as an important intervention designed to break the deadlock in the negotiations. How effective has it been? Today at the latest round of negotiations, the following was said:

Mr. Barnier:
"Discussing a transition period can only begin if we reach an agreement on an orderly withdrawal. That’s the mandate I have at the moment. We’re not going to mix up discussion on debts and past commitments, those subjects that are a part of the orderly withdrawal, with discussions on our future relationship."

David Davis:
"The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership, but it’s obvious that reaching a conclusion on this issue can only be done in the context of and accordance with our new deep and special partnership of the European Union."

The two approaches are incompatible. How long will we go round in circles before one side concedes?

On the same day of the Florence speech, Credit Rating agency Moody downgraded the UK's credit rating, citing concerns over Brexit uncertainty and lack of public finances. I suspect it will be David Davis that concedes, but how much time will we have wasted, and how much weakened will our position be by the time he does so?

[bubbles1966]

So not the EU then?

Immigration and freedom of movement......so, EU related, certainly. But then again, you're the one conflating anti-EU sentiment with nationalism.

Now it's Islamism fuelling nationalism? Please provide links so I can see the evidence....

Google Afd, Front National, Orban policy, Golden Dawn ....it isn't hard...

Meanwhile, any comments on whether the financial crisis has fuelled a rise in nationalism?

Yes - they're wrong.

I can start you off. According to a study of more than 800 elections around the world, spanning 150 years, every single financial crisis is followed by a 10-year surge in support for far-right populist parties.

Oh gawd, you're back to 'experts' and academia

[The Boleyn Hound]

Meanwhile, any comments on whether the financial crisis has fuelled a rise in nationalism?


Yes - they're wrong.

I can start you off. According to a study of more than 800 elections around the world, spanning 150 years, every single financial crisis is followed by a 10-year surge in support for far-right populist parties.

Oh gawd, you're back to 'experts' and academia

Then there really is no point debating politics with you.

Brexit - the new Religion.

[bubbles1966]

They are largely protest votes that dissipate once these parties are put under the spotlight.

They don't dissipate - they enter the mainstream and then the 'extreme' disappears because it becomes the norm.

E.g - Rutte is a Dutch Cameron - then he came out with This under pressure from Wilders.

May and Corbyn are both dancing to variations of Farage's tune. Merkel will 'listen' to Afd. The mainstream French parties were throughly rejected as Le Pen entered the final two at the elections.

The public are lurching further to the right all across the EU, exactly as predicted on NUMB years ago, as they perceive an erosion of culture, sovereignty, democracy through a blend of EU imperialism and multi-culti/PC nonsense,

[bubbles1966]

Then there really is no point debating politics with you.

Oh well. That's life.