Brexit referendum result aftermath

[The Boleyn Hound]

Yep, the WTO rules we automatically crash out to in a years time (unless we sign a deal) mandate a hard border. The only way to prevent a hard border is for N.I. to remain in Customs Union and Single Market.

The Government is finally starting to row back on its impossible and incompatible red lines:

Theresa May is preparing to surrender over plans to leave the Customs Union after Brexit
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-m ... xit-2018-4

Just a shame it took this long for something for she could have admitted on Day 1. We've wasted a whole year of a two year negotiation period on an impossibility.

[bubbles1966]

We've been over this before. A Common External Tariff on goods from third parties is the defining feature of a Customs Union. An FTA does not equal a Customs Union because of the CET.

They are all free trade ageements, just with differing add ons.

The EU is a free trade deal where there are a huge amount of political, trade and social strings in addition.

A customs union is a free trade deal that involves fewer of each, and the extent to which it impacts on the trade element depends on which common tariffs the negotiating parties choose to agree. Turkey is a prime example of an agreement without many of the legal and social strings attached to the EU and with goods outside the framework.

Even with trade where there is no deal at all, businesses are still required to accept trading rules from the host nation they are selling into, and tariffs can be absent even if there is no deal in place.

The EU are worried about a powerful, agile, vigorous and hostile economy on their doorstep because it is a fundamentally failing, outmoded, introverted, shrivelling organisation.

The UK will grandfather it's trade deals from it's time within the EU, and then set about designing trade policy that suits Britain, rather than lowest common denominator (and rarely completed) deals from the EU.

The UK has a unique global balance to it's trade already. The EU is the least important market for us.

Domestic is the majority; global is second; rumpEU are last.

[bubbles1966]

Yep, the WTO rules we automatically crash out to in a years time (unless we sign a deal)

The withdrawal deal is agreed. The transitional deal is agreed. You needn't worry so much.

Focus on how we spend the £11bn a year extra that will be available to the government from that point.

[bubbles1966]

Offering to collect duties on the EU behalf seems possible, technology I would think could be made to work with a little effort. The point is they have settled on their position and won't budge. We are still under the impression this is a negotiation on everything, it never has been, They are in their rights to say this is where we are at if you want to leave you solve the problems. But the idea that will accept any solution that isn't what the EU has already decided suits them best is fanciful, the only way imo this works is to make a clean break and the negotiate bits back from there.

It's little more than brinkmanship.

In the end, if we are not going to impose a border, what can the EU or RoI do about it?

The answer is either:

a) The Irish impose the border themselves and break the GFA;
b) The Irish refuse to impose a border and the EU try to impose it;
c) They accept it;

[York Ham(mer)]

How do we stop immigrants from entering the U.K. via Ireland if we don’t have infrastructure along the Irish border? Part of Brexit is to take back control of our borders, to stop unlimited immigration.

Can’t wait for the German car industry to step in and sort this all out.

[Junco Partner]

It's little more than brinkmanship.

In the end, if we are not going to impose a border, what can the EU or RoI do about it?

The answer is either:

a) The Irish impose the border themselves and break the GFA;
b) The Irish refuse to impose a border and the EU try to impose it;
c) They accept it;

Doesn't happen often but: I agree with Bubbles. :raver:

It's been the reddest red herring in the red coloured red herring shop and has been leapt on quite cynically by some. Plenty of commentators and politicians who previously couldn't have pointed to Northern Ireland on the map disingenuously professing their deep love of the GFA and fear of a 'hard' border.

Brexit is still the wrong thing done at the wrong time for the wrong reasons because the wrong people led a lie-packed campaign....but Ireland is not the crucial factor, any rudimentary deal can cover it off.

[The Boleyn Hound]

It's little more than brinkmanship.

In the end, if we are not going to impose a border, what can the EU or RoI do about it?

The answer is either:

a) The Irish impose the border themselves and break the GFA;
b) The Irish refuse to impose a border and the EU try to impose it;
c) They accept it;

I see this argument from Brexiters a lot, and quite frankly it is childish nonsense.

This is real life we're talking about, not a game to decide who is at fault for imposing the hard border. We will be culpable if a hard border goes up, whether it is us laying the bricks or the EU.

If someone could show me two countries that are not in Single Market + Customs Union alignment, that don't have custom checks, I'd be very interested to see it.

And if someone could explain why Boris Johnson, the Brexiter obsessed with leaving the CU and tasked with finding a solution to the border issue:

has privately admitted that Brexit could result in a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, according to a leaked letter sent to prime minister Theresa May obtained by Sky News.
In the letter, the foreign secretary wrote to the Prime Minister that "it is wrong to see the task as maintaining 'no border'" in Ireland. Instead, the government should prevent the border becoming "significantly" harder.

And if someone could explain the following:

- Truck drivers bemoan long queues and endless paperwork needed to enter EU
https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42 ... 76151821a6" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- Norway has the closest possible trading relationship with the EU without actually being part of the bloc, but its border with Sweden is still a haven for smugglers that requires an alert and nimble border force. And there were 229,286 checks on vehicles crossing in 2016, up slightly on the previous two years.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- People crossing the Irish border would have to register in advance to avoid checks and delays after Brexit under a hugely controversial plan being considered by No 10.
Anyone without “fast-track movement” clearance would have to use approved crossing points or would be “considered to have entered the state irregularly”, the study suggests.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 48621.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's why it's real life and not a red herring.

The same people who say the EU is protectionist see no reason at all why the EU should protect its border, and see no irony.
But that's not much of a surprise coming from the people that want to Take Conteol of Our Own Borders while insisting there should be no border to take control of. Again, all without spotting the irony.

These people have one more week of controlling this Government by my estimation. Thursday is the day their reign of error comes to an end.

[E7Iron]

https://news.sky.com/story/ex-wto-boss- ... t-11101026" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

If there is no deal, there will have to be a border, it is not brinksmanship its fact as WTO rules clearly state that there has to be a border if we were to fall back onto WTO terms.

Can we now start discussing solutions rather than political bullfighting?

One option would be NI having autonomy to run its own customs policy - https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/1 ... er-brexit/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The DUP will clearly vote against this.

Brexit in its current form will not work, the red lines are incompatible and something will have to compromise.

You cannot have the Brexit which the DM, The Express and Rees Mogg are calling for without breaking the GFA.

It is a soft Brexit which means Customs Union and GFA intact or Hard Brexit and GFA breached, up to the government to come clean now and make it's position clear. We are too far down the line to be playing politics with this.

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

There will have to be a border of some kind, somewhere. At the moment though it is political brinkmanship, neither side wants to be seen as the one putting up a border.

This sort of thing is why I think coming out to go back in is the only way anything will get done. The negotiations are trying to unpick everything one bit at a time, with each topic being insurmountable when it comes up. We voted to leave so its down to us to get our position clear. Coming out gives a base position, a point you can't use as leverage. Come out, go to WTO rules, announce no uk border across ireland, for me I would pay the agreed exit costs but I can see the case for not doing, guarantee the rights of EU citizens here. From there you have position for negotiation, both sides are at a set point. Right now there are too many plates spinning imo.

[The Boleyn Hound]

There will have to be a border of some kind, somewhere. At the moment though it is political brinkmanship, neither side wants to be seen as the one putting up a border.

This sort of thing is why I think coming out to go back in is the only way anything will get done. The negotiations are trying to unpick everything one bit at a time, with each topic being insurmountable when it comes up. We voted to leave so its down to us to get our position clear. Coming out gives a base position, a point you can't use as leverage. Come out, go to WTO rules, announce no uk border across ireland, for me I would pay the agreed exit costs but I can see the case for not doing, guarantee the rights of EU citizens here. From there you have position for negotiation, both sides are at a set point. Right now there are too many plates spinning imo.

If you go back a page you'll see some unanswered questions from me about how this is expected to work for the good of our country from the position of weakness we'll find ourselves in (Zero trade deals).

But as well as that, your line: "Come out, go to WTO rules, announce no uk border across ireland" is an absolute non-starter as E7 Iron has pointed out. WTO rules mandate customs checks, customs checks needs a border as the Great Brexit Border debacle has made clear to most (but not all).

Of course, we could always have a referendum to Leave the WTO. I believe the WTO main offices are in Geneva, so this would be a great way to Take Back Control..

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

If you go back a page you'll see some unanswered questions from me about how this is expected to work for the good of our country from the position of weakness we'll find ourselves in (Zero trade deals).

But as well as that, your line: "Come out, go to WTO rules, announce no uk border across ireland" is an absolute non-starter as E7 Iron has pointed out. WTO rules mandate customs checks, customs checks needs a border as the Great Brexit Border debacle has made clear to most (but not all).

Of course, we could always have a referendum to Leave the WTO. I believe the WTO main offices are in Geneva, so this would be a great way to Take Back Control..

There will be a border, the EU will put one up they say, the border issue is purely a political one, there will have to be some sort of border its just about appointing blame to electorates at this stage. But fine if we need to have one too.

If we go on WTO rules the worst case predictions you keep flagging up as gospel show we will have ~100bn less growth over the next 15 years than if we had stayed in the EU. Its hardly catastrophic should it take 15 years to do any sort of deals, as unlikely as that is.

[The Boleyn Hound]

So in your preferred solution a peace agreement legally ratified by 71% and 94% of the population of two countries (and guaranteed by the USA) gets broken, we spend our time arguing about whether it was our fault or their fault (whilst at the same time trying to negotiate a new deal with all the .. er... goodwill we'll have built up), when it will actually be a legal requirement of both us and them, and then enjoy stunted growth as the rest of the world enjoys record growth.

In UK referenda, why would 52% winners in an advisory referendum that didn't mention Customs Union take precedence over 71% winners in a legally binding referendum that was specifically ABOUT the Belfast Agreement?

The Leave campaign said we would both leave and stay in, the MPs we elected to Parliament last year don't back leaving the CU, latest polls show the public don't back leaving, businesses don't back leaving, and forecasts say leaving has a negative effect on our economy even taking into account our ability to make our own FTAs.

There is no logical case for leaving the CU. There is only a "Hard Brexiters who can't solve the border question themselves and often don't understand the issues but wouldn't mind making a quick buck will get angry at not being able to make a quick buck" case.

I say f 'em. Hopefully MPs will do so too this week.

[Rays Rock]

In UK referenda, why would 52% winners in an advisory referendum that didn't mention Customs Union take precedence over 71% winners in a legally binding referendum that was specifically ABOUT the Belfast Agreement?

And this is what it is all about isn't it really.
The golden get out of jail free card for the reamainers.

A solution MUST be found that does not undermine the will of every "WINNING" side.

What is interesting though is that two closely aligned and historically linked "Sovereign" Nations, should have the freedom to be able to decide themselves how they wish to operate the border that separates them. That is of course if both nations are "truly Sovereign" and not bound by the over arching rules of something like the EU (which apparently isn't even a ruling state), which we have been constantly told has no effects that affect the powers of a Nations Sovereignty to it's own Governance. ?

[The Boleyn Hound]

A solution MUST be found that does not undermine the will of every "WINNING" side.

I'm glad you agree.

Two solutions have been found. Either:
a. Staying in the Customs Union and Single Market
or
b. Breaking up the United Kingdom

The will of the people in 2018 might even be that neither a nor b is worth it. Polls certainly indicate this. How about we find out for sure?

What is interesting though is that two closely aligned and historically linked "Sovereign" Nations, should have the freedom to be able to decide themselves how they wish to operate the border that separates them. That is of course if both nations are "truly Sovereign" and not bound by the over arching rules of something like the EU (which apparently isn't even a ruling state), which we have been constantly told has no effects that affect the powers of a Nations Sovereignty to it's own Governance. ?

Yes, both the Republic and the UK have decided that there will be no border between them. Both the UK and the Republic (via the EU) have reiterated this as recently as December 2017 in the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

Are you suggesting that the UK and Ireland are not truly sovereign because one party cannot decide to break a two-party agreement?

[Rays Rock]

I'm glad you agree.

Two solutions have been found. Either:
a. Staying in the Customs Union and Single Market
or
b. Breaking up the United Kingdom

or c. having an open border which will preserve peace. Which is what is most important right ?

Yes, both the Republic and the UK have decided that there will be no border between them. Both the UK and the Republic (via the EU) have reiterated this as recently as December 2017 in the EU Withdrawal Agreement.

That's great. So a soft border it is then.
What could be of greater importance than ensuring that Peace continues ?

Are you suggesting that the UK and Ireland are not truly sovereign because one party cannot decide to break a two-party agreement?

You must have somehow mis-read !

[The Boleyn Hound]

or c. having an open border which will preserve peace. Which is what is most important right ?

It's been established that c) is reliant upon a) and no amount of going round in circles will change this.

That's great. So a soft border it is then.
What could be of greater importance than ensuring that Peace continues ?

See above.

You must have somehow mis-read !

So what is your point about sovereignty then?

[Rays Rock]

It's been established that c) is reliant upon a) and no amount of going round in circles will change this.

So money and trade agreements, are more important than Peace are they ?
Simply put, a border agreement cannot be reached that will maintain a non-violent relationship between the citizens of the Island of Ireland because of money.

[The Boleyn Hound]

What a strange way of looking at it. Sounds like a very disingenuous argument.

The GFA is made possible by the EU's Customs Union and Single Market. If the EU didn't exist, the way to create a parallel-universe GFA would be via an Irish/UK Customs Union/Single Market.

You seem to be suggesting that both the EU and the WTO should change their rules, damaging the stability and integrity of markets around the world, in the name of peace (which arguably would be very damaging to peace), when a peaceful solution already exists and has been in place for decades...and all so that 30 right-wing British MPs can push through something the public and business don't want.

Ok then...

[Rays Rock]

What a strange way of looking at it. Sounds like a very disingenuous argument.

The GFA is made possible by the EU's Customs Union and Single Market. If the EU didn't exist, the way to create a parallel-universe GFA would be via an Irish/UK Customs Union/Single Market.

You seem to be suggesting that both the EU and the WTO should change their rules, damaging the stability and integrity of markets around the world, in the name of peace (which arguably would be very damaging to peace), when a peaceful solution already exists and has been in place for decades...and all so that 30 right-wing British MPs can push through something the public and business don't want.

Ok then...

If that's the way in which you wish to read it then that's entirely up to you.

This a very simple stripped back question. What is stopping the 2 nations of having a soft peaceful border ?
Does that sound strange or sinister to anyone ?

[The Boleyn Hound]

What is stopping the 2 nations of having a soft peaceful border ?

The Republic of Ireland's membership of the EU's Custom Union/Single Market and the UK Gov's desire to leave the EU's Custom Union/Single Market.

Your simple question has a really simple answer.