Brexit referendum result aftermath

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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:That's a toll booth! Boris Johnson was roundly ridiculed when he compared the Irish border to the C Charge...
I know what it is just saying that clearly infrastructure across roads isn't a sticking point
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The Boleyn Hound
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote: I know what it is just saying that clearly infrastructure across roads isn't a sticking point
Hard infrastructure such as toll booths, road markings, lamp posts are of course no issue. Why would they be?

The issue is when you slap a border crossing across the road.

it causes the North and the South to be treated as if they are different countries, which breaks GFA.

Your example is like assuming Kent should find no problem seeing a customs/immigration check on it's borders with Essex, London and E Sussex and Surrey because there's already the Dartford toll booths.
Last edited by The Boleyn Hound on Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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666 hammer
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by 666 hammer »

I would have thought sabotaging imports from a EU member because of protectionism was not part of the customs deal.
I still believe if the EU want a stake in the British market they will have to compromise. If there is a will and all that.
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The Boleyn Hound
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

What specific compromise do you think they could make?

Bear in mind they need to maintain the integrity of their own markets so they can continue to make trade deals.

Bear in mind also that, with the globalist retreat of the USA under Trump, it is the EU that is arguably increasingly defining the rules and standards of global trade.

So what actual specific compromise do you think they should make for the member who has decided to quit the club?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Whitters »

The Boleyn Hound wrote: And even with this arrangement, there is huge border infrastructure between Switzerland and the EU because Switzerland is not in the CU/full SM:

.
This sort of infrastructure only really exists on the major entry roads, motorways, etc. There are loads of small country roads with either no post or a rarely-manned one, and fields and paths where you just stroll/cycle across. There are no fences. In fact in some ski resorts you get off a lift and you’re in France or Italy. I appreciate there are not many ski lifts in NI, but the rest will be much the same in NI / Ireland I would have thought.

In the 8 years I’ve been living in Switzerland I’ve only been asked for ID once when crossing the border, and I’ve been asked about bringing goods in half a dozen times, despite crossing the French border 2 or 3 times a week.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

I've done it myself - crossing from Italy to Switzerland at Cervinia/Zermat near the Matterhorn. Lovely neck of the woods.

No passport check, no customs check, but not much space for a lorry to ship goods in and out though on those ski slopes either...

NI/Ireland has 240 odd border crosses. I don't expect there to be 240 border posts if we leave the CU/SM, but there will be some and some is too much.
Last edited by The Boleyn Hound on Thu Apr 26, 2018 6:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

MPs have just passed a motion without a vote for the UK to stay in customs union after Brexit.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by 666 hammer »

I am sure in the end you will get your own way. But it will come at a price.
I hope you can guarantee success in remaining as you demand from leave.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

This is not my own way, believe me.

If we go ahead and leave the EU while staying in the CU/SM it's much less damaging than a hard Brexit would be and therefore better, but it still leaves us tied to a giant trade bloc's regulations with no say in creating those regulations, which is worse than what we have now. That's the effect of what the winning half voted for, but doesn't count as a win for me.

If we revoke Article 50 we can have the best available trade deal with the World's biggest trading bloc, plus tens of trade deals around the world including brand new ones e.g. Japan. This is much better than the above scenario but due to what's happened, we may not find it so easy to demand special treatment anymore (although we will still have our veto), such as the opt-outs and rebates that we enjoy now.

Once the available options are on the table, why not let the People decide which one we want to follow?

Personally I'd go for the option that gives us a say in the World's biggest trading bloc, and not the one which doesn't give us a say. We could even ask our Government to start enacting those immigration controls it has never enacted. And how about seeking to increase trade with non-EU countries, like Germany has done?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by York Ham(mer) »

I’ve read that the Government have advertised for 1,300 new customs officers for the Northern Ireland border. Sounds like a hard border is coming.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by 666 hammer »

You say what leave wanted but you obviously don't :P have a clue. Immigration was only apart of the reason. For me it was most of things you say we can't live without. Controlled immigration is fine.

I have just counted the current signed free trade arrangements and that adds up to 34 plus 28 member states.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europea ... agreements" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Including Ukraine (limited trading due to crimea),
'The European Union Customs Union (EUCU) is a customs union which consists of all the member states of the European Union (EU), Monaco, and some territories of the United Kingdom which are not part of the EU (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Bailiwick of Guernsey, Bailiwick of Jersey, and the Isle of Man)'
So take out the UK interest from that if we leave.
Then there are other countries like Palestine, Tunisia and Egypt, Morocco, Lebanon, Jordan (is freedom of movement between the EU given here?)
Then Faroe islands, Monaco, Andorra and other small countries.
The current signed deals don't look to be massive trade deals that remain keep saying we can't live without.

The commonwealth (53 members) could be made into a new trade block. Same language spoken, shared history, similar legal system. But we would have the chance to make rules we want. That is what the EU fear.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

So how does this play out?

MPs vote that we should try and get a CU.
We go to EU and say we want a CU.
They say fine this is the CU.
We say we don't want the CU we want these alterations.
They say tough this is the CU take it or leave it.

Then what, negotiators report back to parliament that we tried?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Johnny Byrne's Boots »

^^^^ Pretty much. The wording of the non-binding motion doesen't actually commit the government to negotiate a CU with the EU, just to report back in three months on what they've done about negotiating one.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by the pink palermo »

All you need to know about the EU can be abbreviated

CU= Customs Union
NTs=No Thank's
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

666 hammer wrote:The commonwealth (53 members) could be made into a new trade block. Same language spoken, shared history, similar legal system. But we would have the chance to make rules we want. That is what the EU fear.
It's an illusion to think that the EU fear the UK creating (from scratch) a new rival trading bloc with Commonwealth countries.

1. With such geographical separation between Commonwealth countries, JIT production (such a vital feature of much inter-EU trade) would be impossible.

2. Of the main Commonwealth economies, most already have or are in the process of negotiating trade deals with the EU: Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, Singapore and as such are busy aligning their standards with the EU who is becoming the global standard-setter. Other Commonwealth countries account for just 3% of our exports.

3. The economies/regulations/standards across the Commonwealth are being aligned to the EU's. It would take decades to agree and setup the regulatory framework needed to create a trade bloc to rival the EU's, and then tempt those countries to leave EU trade deals and replace them with ours.

4. A commonwealth trade bloc to rival the EU's would by necessity end up looking very similar to the EU, with regulations in decided by foreign leaders. Do you just want the EU but with UK as the boss?

5. Indian negotiations with the EU are stalled, one of the reasons is that India wants a liberalised visa/Schengen deal. India have already indicated they would demand more liberalised visa rules in exchange for any UK-India FTA.

These are just some of the negatives for the idea of replacing the EU (43% of our exports) with Commonwealth (non-EU FTA countries are 3% of our exports).

What are your positives? That we speak the same language and have a shared history? We (UK) would not have the chance to unilaterally make the rules for this trade bloc, because that would be Empire 2.0 and the Commonwealth countries would never agree to it. Instead we'd have to work with the Commonwealth countries and agree the rules together. Which is exactly what we do inside the EU and which half of the people didn't want.
Last edited by The Boleyn Hound on Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:So how does this play out?

MPs vote that we should try and get a CU.
We go to EU and say we want a CU.
They say fine this is the CU.
We say we don't want the CU we want these alterations.
They say tough this is the CU take it or leave it.

Then what, negotiators report back to parliament that we tried?
Take It
May brings back a deal that can be ratified by EU27 and Parliament.
We enter transition deal.
We leave the EU.

Leave It
May brings a deal back to Parliament that Parliament cannot back.
DUP plus all those who voted for CU vote it down.
May resigns.
New leader pauses A50 process.
Parliament passes a People's Vote Bill.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Etonhammer »

The Boleyn Hound wrote:
Parliament passes a People's Vote Bill.
So 2nd vote, ramp up scare stories to warp factor 10, bully, cajole and lie until those nasty thick people vote the way our leaders want and its business as usual.

Seems fair but lets not factor in how the EU will make us pay for having the temerity to doubt them and they will then bully us into the single currency, more mass uncontrolled immigration (with wacky quotas of 'refugees' when the Germans realise what a huge mistake they made) remove any vetoes we had and carry on with their increased federalisation including removing more powers from Parliament...(Gina ...save us!!)

Or do you think its fair to have another vote and not tell the truth (for once) to the British public about what is euphemistically referred to as the 'European Project'
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by The Boleyn Hound »

Etonhammer

What is your prediction for a realistic scenario in getting the Brexit Bill passed?
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Etonhammer »

It would start by having a leadership who actually wanted it and a negotiating team not being constantly undermined by practically everyone in Parliament, the civil service and the media.

Offer a fair and balanced deal with the EU but make it patently clear that if they take any punitive measures we will match them one for one/

And for everyone to actually back the will of the people and be patriotically strong for the country.

There is a compromise deal that will work for everyone but the EU will not back down and will look to punish us to keep the rest of the nations onside aided by many, many people within the UK who just cant get over the fact that some people believe in different priorities for the nation!
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by EvilC »

The negotiating team's main problems are:
1) That they are ****.
2) That they are negotiating from a position of weakness.

The idea that nasty remain types are undermining them is a huge issue is so far wide of the mark that it could be a Diamanti effort from 35 yards.
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