Rays Rock wrote:New Italian Government is formed this week. We'll possibly find out what their new stance on the EU is.
The rumours so far aren't that positive from an EU perspective.
The italians are putting together a very strange coalition where it seems the one issue where the 2 partners (5star and the League) agree on is immigration both at national and EU level.
It will be intresting to see what demands they put on the EU and even more intresting what demands the EU listen to in comparison to the way David Camerons negotiations went.
The tactic will be to eek out enough time to let Brexit pass by before the EU will want to discuss this issue.
The new Italian government will want this on the table asap though as this is specifically why they were voted in, therefore the public will expect action.
Johnny Byrne's Boots wrote:Interesting piece on Channel 4 News this evening, reporting there is some talk among the Unionist side of a united Ireland. The realisation that a hard border would spell economic ruin for many is hitting home and they consider a united Ireland the lesser evil.
Just a small aside on this, on the 21st May, two polls by ICM and MORI were released that showed the high level of support for the Union.
Due to relentless Nationalist/Republican propaganda about the historical inevitability of their cause (it's been 'just over the hill' for about a century now) this may sound surprising. But two separate polls found no evidence that the Brexit mess has yet caused a large enough shift in public opinion which would make a referendum on a United Ireland remotely winnable.
The Ch4 hack should have dug a little deeper before concocting the lazy story above.
From the ipsos mori report...
Our attitude survey reveals that 21% of the entire population would vote in favour of a united Ireland in a referendum, and 50% would vote to remain in the UK (others are ‘don’t knows’ or would not vote).
Only 22% of Catholics would support unity if it made them £3,500 a year worse off, but 55% of Catholics would support unity if it made them £3,500 a year better off.
the pink palermo wrote:
Yep, a lump of rock at the bottom of Spain that allows us to control the Med and annoy Madrid.
Well worth it.
Except we don't control the med. Strategically Gibraltar is largely irrelevant in the age of supersonic stealth bombers, stand off air to ground missiles, nuclear submarines and cruise missiles.
Junco has made an interesting point though. Both economically and of course as part of our national identity both Scotland and NI are far more important than Gib, not even mentioning the relative populations, yet there's a slice of England that thinks we should jettison the lot.
There's repercussions to decisions at this level that most people probably don't fully appreciate.
sendô wrote:
Strategically Gibraltar is largely irrelevant.
Disagree fella. It's a focal point for NATO defence and intelligence operations, and if/when a newly focused NATO gets it's act together, NATO will want the UK to utilise the base as best as possible.
The monitoring of movement in and out of the Mediterranean, a well placed military port for operations in the East Med, and a close intelligence hotspot for covert operations in North Africa. These are going to remain important especially as NATO increasingly will have to deal with Russia. And Spain has dubious relations with Russia, shall we say, so it's imperative the UK retains control of the The Rock.
DrVenk wrote:
Disagree fella. It's a focal point for NATO defence and intelligence operations, and if/when a newly focused NATO gets it's act together, NATO will want the UK to utilise the base as best as possible.
The monitoring of movement in and out of the Mediterranean, a well placed military port for operations in the East Med, and a close intelligence hotspot for covert operations in North Africa. These are going to remain important especially as NATO increasingly will have to deal with Russia. And Spain has dubious relations with Russia, shall we say, so it's imperative the UK retains control of the The Rock.
Cost of settlement: £39 billion.
Bank of England lost growth to date estimate: £25 billion.
HMRC estimate of no customs union deal: £20 billion.
Estimate cost of relocation and resupply deals £27 billion.
Yup. That's the sum of it Junco. This was started by an internal Conservative Party issue and the process is being scuppered by an internal Conservative Party issue. It was always going to be the case. It's disgraceful really.
Even now, 2 full years since the referendum, we have no clear plan over what type of Brexit we're going for and why.
Primarily because to do so exposes an ideological schism in the Conservative party, and we've an appealingly weak PM who is afraid to front up to the hardcore ideologues who've seized the steering wheel.
The whole country and fabric of the Union must be stressed to breaking point to keep 20-odd Moggist MPs happy.
Junco Partner wrote:
Still, blue passports for everyone
That we could always have had......
DrVenk wrote:
This was started by an internal Conservative Party issue and the process is being scuppered by an internal Conservative Party issue. It was always going to be the case. It's disgraceful really.
I'd suggest this was started by a disastrous decisions by New Labour around eastern European quotas and years of our government, both Labour and Conservative, consistently blaming things that go wrong on the EU and taking credit for any success that came from it.
How Cameron and Osbourne thought that by suddenly becoming pro EU for 8 weeks of campaigning would work i'll never know.
Faithless wrote:
I'd suggest this was started by a disastrous decisions by New Labour around eastern European quotas and years of our government, both Labour and Conservative, consistently blaming things that go wrong on the EU and taking credit for any success that came from it.
I think that in terms of a swelling of anti-immigrant, anti-EU public opinion, these were the main driving factors.
But just because a policy programme linked to our EU membership is gaining unpopularity, you don't go and have a referendum on the WHOLE relationship with the EU which then extends the vote choice far beyond a matter of immigration.
And all of that is unravelling before our very eyes.
DrVenk wrote:
But just because a policy programme linked to our EU membership is gaining unpopularity, you don't go and have a referendum on the WHOLE relationship with the EU which then extends the vote choice far beyond a matter of immigration.
And all of that is unravelling before our very eyes.
I agree but that works on a theory that our elected officials are intelligent people with the countries best interests at heart....
Junco Partner wrote:Quick rundown of the costs so far...
Cost of settlement: £39 billion.
Bank of England lost growth to date estimate: £25 billion.
HMRC estimate of no customs union deal: £20 billion.
Estimate cost of relocation and resupply deals £27 billion.
"but GDP hasn't grown at 0.6% a quarter, only 0.5% a quarter"....no one cares.
Meanwhile, wages outstrip inflation; interest rates are minimal; we have record employment and vacancies, NHS staff are getting up to 30% payrise over three years....
The public shut out all the macro-"estimated/forecast"-bs - and take notice of things that actually matter to them - mortgage rates, unemployment, pensions, prices, wages, the way their public services look etc.
Junco Partner wrote:Quick rundown of the costs so far...
Cost of settlement: £39 billion.
Bank of England lost growth to date estimate: £25 billion.
HMRC estimate of no customs union deal: £20 billion.
Estimate cost of relocation and resupply deals £27 billion.
Still, blue passports for everyone
Other than the Bank of England estimate, how much of that have we already paid out?
'Estimate cost of relocation and resupply deals £27 billion.'
We have lost jobs and factories already due to the EU helping firms relocate else where in the EU or outside (Turkey ) before the referendum. See the Ford plant in Dagenham and Southampton . Remain didn't seem to bothered about those jobs.
666 hammer wrote:'Estimate cost of relocation and resupply deals £27 billion.'
We have lost jobs and factories already due to the EU helping firms relocate else where in the EU or outside (Turkey ) before the referendum. See the Ford plant in Dagenham and Southampton . Remain didn't seem to bothered about those jobs.
The issue goes back a long long way. I’ve said many times before how i’ve seen 1st hand skilled / technical employment be sold out of the country since the early 90’s only to be replaced by low skilled / office based service sector employment.