Brexit referendum result aftermath

[SammyLeeWasOffside]

May's saving grace may be the thought of Corbyn as Prime Minister, McDonnell as Chancellor and Abbot as Home Secretary.

In the cold light of day, how many Tories will vote her out with that as a distinct possibility? Even more so when they'll have to face their local associations to explain their actions.

Anybody who would vote Mogg or Boris for leader doesn't worry about consequences.

I would take May as PM over the options on any side tbh, even if she has cocked up big style on a couple of occasions.

[York Ham(mer)]

Survive a Tory leadership challenge... and then see the DUP propose a no confidence motion in parliament, which WILL pass if the DUP go against her, as the Tories are 8 short of a majority.

Why would the DUP do that? What would they gain from doing that?

[York Ham(mer)]

Andrea Leadsom is convening a group of Ministers - Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove - to overhaul May’s withdrawal agreement! (Bloomberg)

Though once they realise they will have to write it down, it’ll all be over.

[sendô]

The DUP won't back a Brexit that might lead to a united Ireland, but that doesn't mean they will throw away their political power ...

Wont they? I think the DUP are in a catch 22.

They're fundamentally against a united Ireland, and that's a big part of the Proddy vote over there. If they back this Brexit proposal, then they are backing a Brexit that effectively separates NI from GB. All their political integrity would be undermined in the face of their voters - what would that do for them at the next GE?

In other words, will they do what the Lib Dems did and sell out all their principles for a few years of apparent power?

[prophet:marginal]

Andrea Leadsom is convening a group of Ministers - Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, Penny Mordaunt, Michael Gove - to overhaul May’s withdrawal agreement! (Bloomberg)

Though once they realise they will have to write it down, it’ll all be over.

Seriously, would the rest of the world miss them, if somebody mistakenly piped Sarin gas through the air con?

[DasNutNock]

In other words, will they do what the Lib Dems did and sell out all their principles for a few years of apparent power?

Sir Nick Clegg may be able to help answer that one.

[delbert]

My preference would have been for a coalition government from the start, but as pointed out when I brought this up before "we ain't at war".
A bit too late now but would a cross party group made up of leavers have had some merit? Obviously the group would have had to have had the power, the responsibility and accountability to negotiate independently of No10 until deals and agreements were made.
May could then have distanced herself from it and get on with actually running the country. It would have helped remove the party politics from it, and some of those shouting the loudest for Brexit would have the responsibility for delivering it (a criticism often levelled by remainers).......

[Johnny Byrne's Boots]

Stephen Barclay named as new Brexit Secretary.



No, me neither.

[Bend it like Repka]

Stephen Barclay named as new Brexit Secretary.

Congratulations, you have just been given the worst job in the world.

[DasNutNock]

Gets to make a name for himself briefly. Fame is important to MPs.

[York Ham(mer)]

Stephen Barclay named as new Brexit Secretary.

No, me neither.

A Brexiter, he'll lead on no deal planning and preparedness .... Hope he puts a letter in as well, just for the laughs.

[bubbles1966]

Ireland - no plans to construct a hard border if no deal

[Junco Partner]

Total bluff which our incompetent Tory negotiators bought hook line and sinker.

[Rays Rock]

To put it bluntly, this mythical cake that we cannot remove the eggs from was baked entirely by politicians past and present, who unilaterally decided to get creative in the kitchen at absolutely no ones request in the UK. We were quite happy eating egg sandwiches before they got too clever for themselves.
They deserve all the flack and embarrassment directed 100% at them without any deflection.
Yet still they ignore !

[delbert]

Ireland - no plans to construct a hard border if no deal

He said if it looked as though Britain were heading towards a no-deal departure from the European Union then direct discussions on how to avoid a hard border would be required.

Coveney added that those talks would not be easy.

I can't begin to think how hard these discussions will be, oh hold on, yes I can:

Barclay " Oi Paddy, looks like we're leaving the EU without a deal, do you want a hard border "
Coveney " Not really "
Barclay " Us neither "
Coveney " So that's agreed then, we'll let Brussels know it's sorted "

Job, Jobbed............

[Junco Partner]

"It was the decision of the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of the notification."

Imagine having that silver bullet in your armoury though. Imagine having the 'revoke card' which you can unilaterally play at any point up to the 29th March 2019. Imagine negotiations were not going your way and you're feeling bounced into unsustainably poor deal...and you can, at anytime, call a halt and press the factory reset button....then decide whether you want to start again.

What an incredibly powerful negotiating tool that would be, anyone would give their right-arm to have that in the back pocket when entering into negotiations.

Very strong legal argument that we do...

Scottish High Court aiming to get a case heard by the ECJ over whether we have the legal right to withdraw our notice. Legally speaking, its a way out of this nightmare.

There is already a clear consensus among legal experts that with the unanimous permission of the other 27 the UK could choose to remain. And as our Leaver media have been quick to point out our current privileges over the rebate and certain opt-outs would take a knock if all 27 are to agree.

However if this case gets a favourable judgement then there is no need to seek agreement at all.

To understand the level of our Tory negotiators incompetence they are now actively arguing for a legal outcome that disempowers us of the right to revoke the Article 50 process.

D.Ex.EU trying to stop case about reversability of Brexit from going to EU court

Our own government is spending vast sums of public money trying to take away one of the most powerful negotiating tools they could ever have. Can you believe it? No wonder we're in such a mess over this.

With the scale of the chaos this Brexit fiasco has created now clear we should be straining to keep every option open. Not this rabble though. Idiots.

[bubbles1966]

The main reason for disallowing unilateral withdrawal is precisely because members would use it to try and wangle a better deal - it's a bit like threatening vetoes on votes/policies that require unanimous agreement to extract some kind of benefit. The EU is increasingly becoming a place where QMV is being used to stop this type of thing.

I also read today (BBC, I think) that the lead in for any new form of referendum, whether on a deal or membership, is six months also.

Put the two together and there seems to be no revocation or referendum opportunity between now and March.

If the government doesn't fall, it looks like it's either May's deal or no deal.

I've seen it suggested that supporting May's deal would be the smart move from Labour - it will drive a wedge into the Tory/DUP coalition and the internal Tory party that would almost certainly bring the government down.

One other point I saw is that a customs union backstop completely removes the possibility/threat of a WTO leave at any point.

[the pink palermo]

If the government doesn't fall,

I'll be amazed if it doesn't.

[bubbles1966]

It's more likely to fall if the deal is agreed on the back of a big Labour vote, imo. I'd also make Labour odds-on to win a majority in that circumstance as well because 48% would be incredibly grateful.

[IronworksDave]

It's more likely to fall if the deal is agreed on the back of a big Labour vote, imo. I'd also make Labour odds-on to win a majority in that circumstance as well because 48% would be incredibly grateful.

But that's a massive gamble for Labour ...

Every survey has shown that Labour has more Leave voters than the Tories ... the very reason Labour won't come out as a Remain party is they know it could severely damage their base ...

I suspect if Labour force a GE it will be the Leave voters who give them a black eye not the Remain voters who will back them .... far more likely Remain voters will feel abandoned and abstain or vote for a minor party ... that would hurt Labour more than the Tories ...

All idle speculation but much as the Tories have messed this up, Labour have stood up for nothing at all ... and their own voters really don't like that .....