Brexit referendum result aftermath

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Rays Rock
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Rays Rock »

Junco Partner wrote:May's deal is dead. It hasn't a prayer.

So some sort of revocation / extension will be necessary.

Who will be asking for this and to what purpose is what needs to be sorted. Quickly.
The new PM with a new direction.
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Rays Rock
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Rays Rock »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46278361" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Love the way the BBC are pushing ahead with the idea that the withdrawl deal that has no chance of making out of the Commons.
Goes to prove where the BBC gets it’s bias from.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by bubbles1966 »

Increasingly convinced May's deal will pass, eventually.

Mogg's mob seem to be all piss and wind while the urban Remainers that are everywhere among Labour, Lib Dems etc will wilt when the dilemma is deal or no deal

It is all a matter of timing and judgement, mind.
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

Junco Partner wrote:The nuts on the wheels are loosening it seems.
Would Corbyn ditch another principle and make a deal with the DUP? If he does he is effectively in charge of a coalition govt. A very loose one but that will be enough to force home his rhetoric of the tories are no longer governing. The PM must want to slap whoever it was that misread the polls and said go for the landslide.

To misquote the song its a long time for May til December.
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IronworksDave
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by IronworksDave »

Junco Partner wrote:May's deal is dead. It hasn't a prayer.

So some sort of revocation / extension will be necessary.

Who will be asking for this and to what purpose is what needs to be sorted. Quickly.
Why? what else is on offer? It's this or No Deal ....

With 75% of business saying take the deal, there will be a swing towards 'any deal is better than no deal' ... the mass of public opinion will get behind it, even if they don't like it ...

Think of it as West Ham moving to the LS - the Boleyn is gone so not an option, we either move to a ****-hole or ground-share with Leyton Orient, nobody wants the ****hole but it's the only realistic option - Brexit is the same, the old EU is no longer an option, either take the Deal, or be left wandering alone looking for a home ...

The plan 'go back and renegotiate' is just a pipe dream ... why would the EU renegotiate? it's like asking our landlord to reduce the rent because we think it's to high, does anyone think that would work?
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the pink palermo
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by the pink palermo »

IronworksDave wrote:With 75% of business saying take the deal,
No, they haven't.
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Clacton-ammer
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Clacton-ammer »

I'm not sure where the 75% figure has come from, but there has certainly been a swing from business to take the deal. Well, from what I have read/heard on our favourite media outlets.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by brownout »

From my business's point of view, which does most of its trade with the EU, May's deal is far better than no deal but not as good as remain.
If the choice is May's deal or no deal I would expect that most businesses that trade with the EU in any way would back what has been negotiated.
It's far from ideal but it gives the border control that many people want but with a downside - however that was always going to be the case.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by IronworksDave »

the pink palermo wrote:With 75% of business saying take the deal,

No, they haven't.
It's the number given out by the CBI ... no idea where they got it but presumably from their members ... they are supposed to speak for UK business, so it seemed a reasonable source ...

Anecdotally ever business I deal with (all import - export) just want it done, they can deal with pretty much anything, what they can't deal with is not knowing ... for them a stable pound is far more important than a few percent on duty ... they just want a deal, any deal, to be done ....
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by sendô »

It's a startling climbdown isn't it?

Brexit was meant to be Britain striking out on it's own, making easy trade deals with the rest of the world rather than with Europe - 90% of the world's population.

Wanting to remain was all fear mongering. We'll be fine, the country that built the empire, we'll have control of everything to ourselves again, wean off of the EU teat, blah blah blah.

Suddenly people are falling over themselves to sign up to May's Deal of Vassalage through fear of doing what the 52% supposedly voting for.

Is a bad deal better than no deal? Not if you cannot ever get out of the bad deal without the EU's say so.
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sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by sendô »

delbert wrote:Go on then, explain away.........
I don't want to derail the thread, but effectively we held onto Gibraltar through several sieges in the 18th century because there was a great big f*** off rock with some nice places we could hide cannons that could fire down on gathering armies below, whilst the rock itself being virtually impassable. Therefore an invasion had to come by sea, and area where we were generally top dogs.

The population back then was also evacuated more than once, and so Gibraltar became a military fortress.

Today's a highly populated area, and today the rock can be bypassed with airpower and of course Paras.
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SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

IronworksDave wrote: It's the number given out by the CBI ... no idea where they got it but presumably from their members ... they are supposed to speak for UK business, so it seemed a reasonable source ...
Can't find that number anywhere
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by SammyLeeWasOffside »

sendô wrote:It's a startling climbdown isn't it?

Brexit was meant to be Britain striking out on it's own, making easy trade deals with the rest of the world rather than with Europe - 90% of the world's population.

Suddenly people are falling over themselves to sign up to May's Deal of Vassalage through fear of doing what the 52% supposedly voting for.
Politicians in trying to avoid making a decision shock.

Not sure about the last bit, Labour are voting against it without even needing to read it, as are the SNP, greens, lib dems. The tories are split between it being going too far and not far enough.

Its the result of years (if not decades) of kicking cans down the road. i think more and more Tory mps are coming round to a 2nd ref in order to avoid them having to decide anything. We could end up with the tories wanting another vote and Labour opposing the idea as they want to get elected above everything else.

Its still my opinion that we should have announced hard brexit 2 years ago. It would have given us a definite position from which to negotiate if nothing else. The whole nothing set in stone plan has bogged everything down.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by delbert »

sendô wrote: I don't want to derail the thread, but effectively we held onto Gibraltar through several sieges in the 18th century because there was a great big **** off rock with some nice places we could hide cannons that could fire down on gathering armies below, whilst the rock itself being virtually impassable. Therefore an invasion had to come by sea, and area where we were generally top dogs.

The population back then was also evacuated more than once, and so Gibraltar became a military fortress.

Today's a highly populated area, and today the rock can be bypassed with airpower and of course Paras.
You don't know what we've got on there and you don't know what contingency plans we have in place and train for. The rock is still there and the tunnels still exist, we train to fight in them quite a lot, politically, strategically and tactically the place would be an absolute nightmare to assault. Numbers wouldn't help you because it would be like fighting your way into a phone box. As an aside, Paras do not land on rocks and air power by passing something you want to capture doesn't help you capture it.
We can do an awful lot to delay, stop and eventually defeat any attempt to take Gibraltar by force, not that any attack is very likely anyway.........
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by sendô »

Ok mate, it's impenetrable and there's no way the Spanish could ever take it, regardless of how hard they try.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by the pink palermo »

IronworksDave wrote: With 75% of business saying take the deal,
the pink palermo wrote: No, they haven't.
IronworksDave wrote: It's the number given out by the CBI ... no idea where they got it but presumably from their members ... they are supposed to speak for UK business, so it seemed a reasonable source ...

...
The CBI represents 3.3% of UK businesses.

So, taking your number of "75%", assuming they are speaking for their members, that would mean less than 2.5% of UK businesses, someway short of your "75%" number.

So, now that you are aware of how few businesses have taken the position your previous post suggested, have you changed your opinion ?
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Rays Rock
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Rays Rock »

sendô wrote:It's a startling climbdown isn't it?

Brexit was meant to be Britain striking out on it's own, making easy trade deals with the rest of the world rather than with Europe - 90% of the world's population.

Wanting to remain was all fear mongering. We'll be fine, the country that built the empire, we'll have control of everything to ourselves again, wean off of the EU teat, blah blah blah.

Suddenly people are falling over themselves to sign up to May's Deal of Vassalage through fear of doing what the 52% supposedly voting for.

Is a bad deal better than no deal? Not if you cannot ever get out of the bad deal without the EU's say so.
That depends on who’s actually performing the climb down.
I’m certainly not.
I still maintain a real Brexit pays dividends in the end game.
We simply will never ever know now hiw that could have played out, as it seems some people don’t seem to have the stomach for change or giving it a chance to even start.
What we will know is that those who wish to accept this Vassalage have weakened our own nation for evermore.
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by brownout »

There is not a majority for No Deal in the House of Commons or amongst the electorate (many of the 52% voted for leave expecting a good deal). There will be pressure from business to make a deal (or stay in the EU).

Hence I think that in the end a deal will be agreed, probably after it’s been tweaked a little. The deal will allow MPs to ‘respect the referendum result’, give the border controls that people wanted but in order to maintain free trade we will need to follow EU rules without a say, which is hardly ideal.

Maybe a free vote of MPs is the way to resolve it (as Ted Heath did when we originally entered). The alternative is another referendum giving the people the three choices (No deal, May’s deal or remain).

If May can’t get a deal through parliament then there will either be a General Election (but with no guarantee at all that this will solve Brexit) or another referendum (which is likely to back remain, or if not May’s deal).
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by York Ham(mer) »

Amber Rudd: “There’s Deal, there’s No Deal, there’s No Brexit. There are three ways this could go.”
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath

Post by Hummer_I_mean_Hammer »

brownout wrote: (many of the 52% voted for leave expecting a good deal).
Wrong.
No one I know thought that there was any chance of obtaining a 'good deal', the EU has history in making any divorce as nasty and drawn out as possible.
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