Brexit referendum result aftermath
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- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Again what exactly is wrong with the withdrawal agreement? I keep reading 'awful', 'damaging' etc etc but despite asking over and over I haven't had anyone say what wrong with it (except Juncs on Ireland - which I get and others who hate it just because its a deal).
What does this deal do that is so terrible? I want to know so I can join in this outrage, I need a new vent for my grumpiness now politicians have become beyond parody.
What does this deal do that is so terrible? I want to know so I can join in this outrage, I need a new vent for my grumpiness now politicians have become beyond parody.
- the pink palermo
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
It's the backstop Sammy.SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:Again what exactly is wrong with the withdrawal agreement? I keep reading 'awful', 'damaging' etc etc but despite asking over and over I haven't had anyone say what wrong with it (except Juncs on Ireland - which I get and others who hate it just because its a deal).
What does this deal do that is so terrible? I want to know so I can join in this outrage, I need a new vent for my grumpiness now politicians have become beyond parody.
That's the EU's final ace in the hole to force any and all concessions. watering down Brexit to the point it becomes meaningless.
If it really is only a "contingency" why are the EU so reluctant to enshrine it in a legal framework ?
It's a trap , maybe not a deliberate one, but one nonetheless.
Personally I'd get shot of Northern Ireland, it's a cost centre of zero strategic value.No PM could do that however and survive, Queeny might get tearful.
- smuts
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
May hasn't listened to her 2 appointed Brexit ministers who both quit as they were being over-ridden.
Why is she now likely to listen to others outside of her own party?
Why is she now likely to listen to others outside of her own party?
- Etonhammer
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
The ‘backstop’ is the main point. The EU can not let us leave without making an example of us …punish us if you like, to send a message to the rest of the disillusioned countries/sections of populations.
Looks like the Irish have already admitted that some hard board will have to be established based upon the microphone faux pas, so where is the issue?
They will use the ‘Hotel California’ position to demand more and more from us – I see Gib and fishing rights the first to be leveraged.
There can not be a leave deal as they will not concede anything that doesn’t tie us to their will and rules and make us pay for the privilege.
As it looks like no form of deal will get through Parliament then it must be no deal, walk away and play a straight bat. We shouldn’t demand anything and nor should they without it being met like for like.
Any patriotic leader would put the country first and stand firm. Unfortunately, we have a PM who has wrestled the title of worse ever from GB (something I thought id never see in my lifetime) and has no intent of leaving.
We have the remarkable situation where the leader of the Tories is an arch remainer opposed by the LP led by their historically anti EU leader who’s 6-point plan would see us leave in name only and be pretty much the same deal as the PM is trying to blackmail the country into accepting.
I never thought I would see this country so weak and lacking moral fibre.
Looks like the Irish have already admitted that some hard board will have to be established based upon the microphone faux pas, so where is the issue?
They will use the ‘Hotel California’ position to demand more and more from us – I see Gib and fishing rights the first to be leveraged.
There can not be a leave deal as they will not concede anything that doesn’t tie us to their will and rules and make us pay for the privilege.
As it looks like no form of deal will get through Parliament then it must be no deal, walk away and play a straight bat. We shouldn’t demand anything and nor should they without it being met like for like.
Any patriotic leader would put the country first and stand firm. Unfortunately, we have a PM who has wrestled the title of worse ever from GB (something I thought id never see in my lifetime) and has no intent of leaving.
We have the remarkable situation where the leader of the Tories is an arch remainer opposed by the LP led by their historically anti EU leader who’s 6-point plan would see us leave in name only and be pretty much the same deal as the PM is trying to blackmail the country into accepting.
I never thought I would see this country so weak and lacking moral fibre.
- York Ham(mer)
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Andrea Leadsom confirms that the PM will make a statement and table a motion under s.13 EU Withdrawal Act on Monday. She also announces that the Govt will comply with the Act by providing time to debate and vote on Brexit next steps on Tuesday 29 January.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Ok I get why leave voters dislike the backstop as they distrust the EU but moderates and remainers? For remainers if we have to leave the backstop is about as good as it gets. Thats a majority right there surely.
The EU don't want us in the backstop for a huge number of reasons and it may be a trap for negotiating purposes (much like the border in the first place) but there are worse traps to be stuck in. As a relatively moderate leaver it seems quite a comfortable place to end up to me, in the SM with no cost or freedom of movement, in a customs union with a veto on any new laws, citizens rights all agreed, no cliff edge, no breaking the GFA.
We don't have to agree to demands, we can just sit in that sweet spot until Italy, Spain, Hungary etc all start to ask the EU why they can't have that deal.
The EU don't want us in the backstop for a huge number of reasons and it may be a trap for negotiating purposes (much like the border in the first place) but there are worse traps to be stuck in. As a relatively moderate leaver it seems quite a comfortable place to end up to me, in the SM with no cost or freedom of movement, in a customs union with a veto on any new laws, citizens rights all agreed, no cliff edge, no breaking the GFA.
We don't have to agree to demands, we can just sit in that sweet spot until Italy, Spain, Hungary etc all start to ask the EU why they can't have that deal.
- sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
The only way forwards I can see from here:
1. May needs to be jogged on. She's a major obstacle. She wants to "reach out" to opposition parties but has done so too late and wont change her red lines, which is basically "please back my deal or we're ****ed".
2. New PM, probably Tory. I really don't care who, let Bojo have it if he wants. There'll be a GE soon after Brexit anyway.
3. Go back to the EU, tell them we'll have a "hard" border and no backstop thank you please.
4. If they say no, then it's second referendum time - two options on the card, remain or hard Brexit. All other options have been exhausted.
5. GE time.
1. May needs to be jogged on. She's a major obstacle. She wants to "reach out" to opposition parties but has done so too late and wont change her red lines, which is basically "please back my deal or we're ****ed".
2. New PM, probably Tory. I really don't care who, let Bojo have it if he wants. There'll be a GE soon after Brexit anyway.
3. Go back to the EU, tell them we'll have a "hard" border and no backstop thank you please.
4. If they say no, then it's second referendum time - two options on the card, remain or hard Brexit. All other options have been exhausted.
5. GE time.
- sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
No it's not, the backstop is the worst of both worlds. It's indefinitely being tied to all of the EU's rules and toeing their line without any votes, any say, any voice.SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:Ok I get why leave voters dislike the backstop as they distrust the EU but moderates and remainers? For remainers if we have to leave the backstop is about as good as it gets. Thats a majority right there surely.
There's loads of things still to negotiate and the EU will use it as a stick to beat us with. The Irish will try and prise NI away. Look how much leverage it's given them so far - a backwater country with a few million tinkers utterly dependant on GB trade calling the shots and dictating the agenda.
- York Ham(mer)
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Just noting that while human rights are mentioned in Art.6, the European Court Of Human Rights is not an EU court and the U.K. will continue to be subject to it unless the U.K. withdraws from the entirely separate European Convention on Human Rights.Greatest Cockney Rip Off wrote:The European Court has ruled in many cases against Britain wishing to deport non-EU citizens from it's shores. It's already stopped at least forty cases of dangerous terrorists from being deported from the UK alone. if we're not part of the EU, then we're not subject to the European Courts. EEA/EFTA states are outside of Article 6 of the EU’s Treaty on European Union which governs access to the European Courts of Justice and Human Rights.
- Greatest Cockney Rip Off
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Hence the reason EEA / EFTA is the only workable solution. It takes away the need for any backstop arrangement.sendô wrote:No it's not, the backstop is the worst of both worlds. It's indefinitely being tied to all of the EU's rules and toeing their line without any votes, any say, any voice.
There's loads of things still to negotiate and the EU will use it as a stick to beat us with. The Irish will try and prise NI away. Look how much leverage it's given them so far - a backwater country with a few million tinkers utterly dependant on GB trade calling the shots and dictating the agenda.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Any contact with the EU will come at a regulatory price. Any trade deal will tie us to standards and regulations for anything we want to trade. Anything we want to go back into like Eurotom etc will impose rules on us.sendô wrote: No it's not, the backstop is the worst of both worlds. It's indefinitely being tied to all of the EU's rules and toeing their line without any votes, any say, any voice.
The backstop ties us to current rules, employment standards, environment etc etc, all the things Lab/SNP/Lib/Greens etc say we can't backtrack from and things likely to be in negotiations with the PM, but gives a veto on any new legislation. Single market access at no cost.
- Greatest Cockney Rip Off
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Sorry, I should have made that clearer. As you correctly state, the EU and the ECHR are completely separate, however, we are bound to the ECHR by the EU. Even after Brexit, the EU are pushing to keep us part of this agreement:York Ham(mer) wrote:Just noting that while human rights are mentioned in Art.6, the European Court Of Human Rights is not an EU court and the U.K. will continue to be subject to it unless the U.K. withdraws from the entirely separate European Convention on Human Rights.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/ju ... ter-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Brexit would effectively tear this up as we will no longer be subject to the Lisbon Treaty which binds us to the ECHR. We WOULD be subject to the EFTA Courts which only deal with trade and nothing else.
- sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Without the backstop we can choose to reduce our EU trade and increase our non EU trade in future. With the backstop everything has to be to what the EU state, indefinitely.SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:Any contact with the EU will come at a regulatory price. Any trade deal will tie us to standards and regulations for anything we want to trade. Anything we want to go back into like Eurotom etc will impose rules on us.
The backstop ties us to current rules, employment standards, environment etc etc, all the things Lab/SNP/Lib/Greens etc say we can't backtrack from and things likely to be in negotiations with the PM, but gives a veto on any new legislation. Single market access at no cost.
That's all moot really though, the point is it's indefinite and the EU will almost certainly use it as leverage to get out of it. Of that there can be little doubt - the nations of Europe might be our friends and allies, but the EU certainly is not.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
We can do that with trade in the backstop (and technically in the EU). We just have to find ways round standards to do full trade deals. At some point if we want a deal there has to be a compromise the problem is nobody trusts the compromises anybody makes.sendô wrote: Without the backstop we can choose to reduce our EU trade and increase our non EU trade in future. With the backstop everything has to be to what the EU state, indefinitely.
That's all moot really though, the point is it's indefinite and the EU will almost certainly use it as leverage to get out of it. Of that there can be little doubt - the nations of Europe might be our friends and allies, but the EU certainly is not.
So as it stands we are going to end up staying in because everybody (including pro EU mps) think the EU is all about screwing us over. It seems to me that in many ways the backstop is a better deal than the one we have now. If we are going to get a deal through parliament it won't be better than Mays, it might be slightly different. The fact this can't get close to passing shows they are going to veto anything that comes in front of them unless its remain. The 2nd referendum push is just to get cover because they expect a different result next time, the people chose so MPs didn't have to go back on the 1st vote.
- Danny's Dyer Acting
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Official steps to bring in army reservists in event of no deal have been put in motion today.
Unicorns and sunlit uplands do need a fair amount of protection I guess.
Unicorns and sunlit uplands do need a fair amount of protection I guess.
- sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Sunlit uplands.
No downside.
Easiest deal in history.
350m a week to the NHS.
Take back control.
No downside.
Easiest deal in history.
350m a week to the NHS.
Take back control.
- Morocco Mole
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Security concerns?SammyLeeWasOffside wrote:Again what exactly is wrong with the withdrawal agreement? I keep reading 'awful', 'damaging' etc etc but despite asking over and over I haven't had anyone say what wrong with it (except Juncs on Ireland - which I get and others who hate it just because its a deal).
What does this deal do that is so terrible? I want to know so I can join in this outrage, I need a new vent for my grumpiness now politicians have become beyond parody.
- SammyLeeWasOffside
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
Sorry I don't have a subscription, what does it say?Morocco Mole wrote: Security concerns?
- Morocco Mole
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- sendô
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Re: Brexit referendum result aftermath
We've had enough of so-called "experts", MM.Morocco Mole wrote:My bad. Try this https://reaction.life/former-mi6-chief- ... agreement/