Brexit referendum result aftermath

[brownout]

Flybmi ceases operations. Brexit a factor.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47267901" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course those who wish to leave will say it is the other factors but there is a pattern now with Brexit clearly having an affect on jobs & the economy. Even the politicians who before the referendum were saying everything will be rosy are admitting that it will have a negative impact for some time.

[bubbles1966]

Flybmi ceases operations. Brexit a factor..

According to their blurb, so is climate change policy and the cost of fuel (I assume it's as hugely taxed as normal fuel ).

These lo-cost airlines are always going pop...10 Euro airlines went bust in 2018

Germania, which is 5x the size of ours - went pop just over a week ago.

The whole climate change thing with carbon emissions, high environmental taxes and diesel suddenly being deemed toxic is a problem for this industry (and automotive). Brexit might be an added complication, but that's all it is.

As said in the other thread - if the younger generation want a cleaner, greener planet - they are going to have to accept the cost in terms of less travel, less production, less choice etc.

[delbert]

Last year the airline ran 29,000 flights, carrying 522,000 passengers.

That works out at 18 passengers per flight, so I imagine uncertainty over this will have a massive impact:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ns-trading" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

From an environmental perspective (sorry, had to go there ), companies like this going under must be good news...........

[brownout]

Putting Brexit aside, yes reduced air travel is necessary as part of measures to reduce climate change. Maybe we should cancel expansion of Heathrow.

[DasNutNock]

Maybe we should cancel expansion of Heathrow.

Far too much unnecessary passenger and freight air travel these days IMO.

[bubbles1966]

There has to be some kind of reasonable limit and some way of making operating flights more efficient with fewer journeys. An airline running thousands of flights with just 18 passengers a flight??

Yes, there are some similarities with Heathrow to various debates where demand is never looked at, just spend more and expand more without asking whether if it is truly necessary or wise.

[York Ham(mer)]

41 days to go: The Communist Party of Britain declares that Britain should leave the EU on WTO terms. Members of the ERG wing of the Tory Party say Britain should leave the EU on WTO terms. Extraordinary to see that the Communist Party and ERG are advocating *exactly* the same thing.

[bubbles1966]

Editorial comment from the Irish Independent:

We had hoped Poland's foreign minister was a different drummer marching in another direction when he broke ranks with the EU band, suggesting last month that Ireland has "treated the UK harshly" over the backstop.

It now looks as though it could be Ireland that is out of step, not Poland's Jacek Czaputowicz.

Had our confidence in our position not been fortified by cast-iron commitments from top brass in Brussels? Perhaps.

But across the water, Theresa May and the Ultras had waged a €39bn bet (the price of the EU divorce bill) on Ireland being forced into diluting the backstop once the EU was confronted with the prospect of losing the pot. And with just six weeks to go to Brexit, it looks as if the gamble could pay off.

A forthright and frankly chilling interview with someone described as a "senior EU diplomat" yesterday came like a glass of cold water in the face.

The un-named source said: "In a no-deal scenario, Ireland would have to choose between setting up a physical Border with Northern Ireland and de facto leaving the single market. If there is no physical Border, the customs checks would have to take place on all goods coming from Ireland."

So we bring in a hard Border or leave the single market. It's really that stark. A blunt "our way or the highway" ultimatum, veiled in the velvet language only anonymity allows. No matter how much Iveagh House may try to calm nerves these quotes cannot be dismissed.

They were carried by the Reuters news agency - the go-to source favoured by the EU when feeding unpalatable truths into the mainstream.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney's office was anxious to dismiss the report. A spokesman said: "I would point to people who put their names to statements like President Tusk and President Juncker who have repeatedly said the EU is determined to do all it can, deal or no deal, to avoid the need for a Border and to protect peace..."

We are in no doubt the EU will do "all that it can". This has never been in question.

The difficulty, and it is a grave one, is that it can do nothing. It will not allow a 500km hole to be opened up in the heart of the customs union, should the UK depart messily.

As the EU frontier is on our side, responsibility for protecting the zone's trade will almost certainly come back to us. European solidarity and fellowship will only get you so far, especially if it comes to jeopardising the integrity of the biggest trading bloc in the world.

Ireland has stood by the EU and should not be made to pay the price for another member storming out. We saddled our future generations with debt to protect the euro when the dam threatened to burst a decade ago. Small nations within the EU will be watching closely to see how we are treated.

Talk is cheap - and what will it say about the strength of the union if Mrs May fiddles but it is Ireland that burns?

[monkeyhanger]

Again, it's well worth watching the Inside Europe: Ten Years of Turmoil documentary that's just finished.

Just finished watching all three episodes. Didn’t really tell me much I didn’t already know. Amazing that after three major existential crisies the EU is still operating well. It must say something about it’s resilience eh ?

The Greeks backed down after being threatened with exit from the Euro and the EU itself, the migrant crisis abated when the EU ultimately proved it was no soft touch to mass migration, and the Brits (Tories) shot themselves in the foot by deliberately moving from the centre of influence in the block and making threatening demands at inappropriate times.

[Junco Partner]

Times headline (£ so no link)

Britain’s richest man, recently knighted and prominent Brexiteer fleeing the country to avoid paying taxes.

Because they are compulsory for the little people but of course voluntary for the rich, obvs.

I'm starting to lose count of the Brexiteer leaders who, after convincing some we'd be better off after Brexit, are personally quitting the UK now we're about to leave.

Time to admit it. We''ve been had.

[the pink palermo]

Flybmi ceases operations. Brexit a factor.

Of course those who wish to leave will say it is the other factors.

Yep, and I'm one of them.

In the entire history of the Aviation industry only 2 airlines have ever recovered their full cost of capital invested.

Financially it is the worst industry in the history of commerce.

The reality is if you are in the airline industry it's not a question of if you go bust, it's only a matter of when.

Despite what they have said, it's got bugger all to do with Brexit.

[the pink palermo]

Editorial comment from the Irish Independent:

Ireland has stood by the EU and should not be made to pay the price for another member storming out. We saddled our future generations with debt to protect the euro when the dam threatened to burst a decade ago. Small nations within the EU will be watching closely to see how we are treated.

Talk is cheap - and what will it say about the strength of the union if Mrs May fiddles but it is Ireland that burns?[/i]

At last , somebody on the Island of Ireland has grasped the reality that money talks and bull**** walks.

I have enormous sympathy for them as the section I've quoted above from that editorial makes clear that they played by the EU's rules when the Euro was having it's wobble, they took the pain, and there was a lot of it, and it will continue for generations........and now, when they look for support the other nations in the EU will simply shrug their shoulders and say Sorry we need the British money more than we need your friendship.

As I wrote several weeks ago we're not seeing the end of the UK in the EU, we're seeing the end of the EU.

[bubbles1966]

Just finished watching all three episodes. Didn’t really tell me much I didn’t already know. Amazing that after three major existential crisies the EU is still operating well. It must say something about it’s resilience eh ?

The Greeks backed down after being threatened with exit from the Euro and the EU itself, the migrant crisis abated when the EU ultimately proved it was no soft touch to mass migration, and the Brits (Tories) shot themselves in the foot by deliberately moving from the centre of influence in the block and making threatening demands at inappropriate times.

That's one way of reading it, I suppose.

The Greeks , as a small nation, overestimated their influence and the rhetoric of solidarity within the EU and were eventually threatened with expulsion from the euro if they did not agree to doing what the bigger countries (mostly Germany and France) wanted as an outcome from the sovereign debt issue. In 2019, the Irish are now being told to impose a border or be kicked out of the single market.

And the migration crisis has seen the Greek Islands turned into a holding camp as the EU put up a border in Macedonia. Turkey used it's leverage on Germany to create this situation. That leverage still exists. What's more, the Germans did the deal with Turkey and essentially bypassed Tusk and Juncker and co when push came to shove.

And Brexit? The Germans and the French again lent on the eastern europeans to tell them they had to agree Cameron's deal.

The pattern is the same throughout. After all the pretence of unity and solidarity, the Germans will impose a solution on the little europeans that suits the needs of Germany.

That's why the Irish Independent published that editorial. They know what's coming.

[jastons]

I am not a business man and I know nothing about operating an airline. What I do know is that carrying an average of 18 passengers per flight is never going to be cost effective .

[monkeyhanger]

The pattern is the same throughout. After all the pretence of unity and solidarity, the Germans will impose a solution on the little europeans that suits the needs of Germany.

That’s not what came across in those documentaries. The Germans were out of step with other countries over the migrant crisis and were eventually over-ruled. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte seemed to be the key player during that crisis as they were holding the EU presidency at the time. The Eurozone crisis was ultimately eased by Mario Draghi’s comments as head of the European Central Bank that they would ‘do whatever it takes’ to protect the Euro. I was working in the City at the time and that was what calmed the markets. Cameron actually achieved some decent concessions on top of the opt-outs the UK already enjoyed but the Eurosceptic atmosphere in the UK built up over 30 years would always have ensured Brexit. I don’t see the hand of Germany behind any of that but we like to think we are still fighting the Bosch don’t we.

[Rays Rock]

Its all very well the EU initially lining up behind ROI and looking all united, but now when the crunch comes they realise that UK trade will still contribute much more to the EU economy on the outside than the Irish takes out from within. That is the irrefutable fact of the matter.

[Rays Rock]

Times headline (£ so no link)

Britain’s richest man, recently knighted and prominent Brexiteer fleeing the country to avoid paying taxes.

Because they are compulsory for the little people but of course voluntary for the rich, obvs.

I'm starting to lose count of the Brexiteer leaders who, after convincing some we'd be better off after Brexit, are personally quitting the UK now we're about to leave.

Time to admit it. We''ve been had.

You’ve only been had if you thought the whole reason for leaving was all about Money.
Hard as it is to believe, but i wanted to leave irrespective of the financial gains / losses.

[666 hammer]

The concept of leaving for those reasons has been lost. Hence why leavers are told they did not know what they voted for.
It is amusing seeing corbyn struggle to keep momentum onboard knowing he can't provide the changes he wants whilst being in the EU.

[richneal]

Flybmi ceases operations. Brexit a factor. Of course those who wish to leave will say it is the other factors.

Despite what they have said, it's got bugger all to do with Brexit.

Wrong 100% on that one Pinky. I like your posts but you are wrong on this one - let me explain. And apologies for the lengthy summary, but it takes a while to debunk spurious claims:

Brexit is designed - intentionally or otherwise - to increase the friction of distance for travellers and increase administrative costs for airlines travelling to/from the UK. It's going to increase the costs for airlines per passenger/per seat and ultimately those costs will be borne by passengers.

Everything about air travel will be affected - consumer rights, regulation, security, flight ops & safety, staffing and crew, air services agreements - the list goes on.

For instance, functions performed by EASA on behalf of all members will have to be replicated by the UK individually by the CAA, increasing unit costs for all. Other option is that the UK maintains EASA standards - and continue to pay to do so - without being able to contribute to the implementation of said standards. Either option will cost more than the status quo. Costs will be borne by both UK-based and and non-UK-based airlines, but those costs will disproportionately fall on those based in the UK. It will place UK-based airlines at a slight competitive disadvantage.

No agreement has yet been reached that keeps the UK within EASA long term. Far from increasing "red tape" and unnecessary regulation, my experience is that EASA reduces the same for the UK aviation and aerospace industries.

All the major airlines worldwide - and the regionals - have been watching this for the last 30+ months as it will increase their costs.

Increase in administrative costs have been assumed by all industry participants - quite reasonable to do so. Big issue is that none of us can quantify those costs long-term - they remain unknown.

Any business - especially those operating on miniscule profit margins - will have to factor those additional costs into their bottom line - end of. Additional administrative costs have to affect balance sheets. Shareholders will and have responded accordingly.

Again, to state that Brexit is not a factor in the finances of any aviation-related industry is factually incorrect: we've been talking about the same both before and after the Brexit vote.

Are their other factors that affect the profitability of any airline? Yes, thousands of them.

But facts and context are important, and it's just as important to stop spinning fairy tales. You'll see a lot more changes regarding your air travel in the months and years ahead, and it will include significant increases in costs and time which may be attributed to Brexit. The friction of distance will increase.

[bubbles1966]

That’s not what came across in those documentaries. The Germans were out of step with other countries over the migrant crisis and were eventually over-ruled.

The Germans along with the other members of the EU tried to heap all the pressure on the Italians to manage it themselves at the initial emergency conference that Renzi called for. Solidarity? No chance.

Once it spiralled out of control - the burden of their 20th century guilt plus Merkels' 'no borders' ideology - kicked in. This exacerbated the problem as almost all the migrants didn't want to come to europe - they wanted to come specifically to Germany and here she was actively inviting them.

It soon became unmanageable for them and eventually the Greek/Macedonian border was fenced off as a solution - dumping the problem on the Greeks - just as the initial plan had been to dump on the Italians.

The Turks only dealt with Rutte in a positive way once Merkel joined him and once cash for migrants was given to them along with other accession related concessions.End result - the greek islands are a mediterranean version of the Calais Jungle.

The Eurozone crisis was ultimately eased by Mario Draghi’s comments as head of the European Central Bank that they would ‘do whatever it takes’ to protect the Euro.

Draghi intervened in 2012. They whole thing had been running since 2010. It was still going in 2015.

The initial instinct of the EU and Germans was to do as little as possible to assist the Greeks and to punish them for their profligacy and investors for being silly enough to lend them money. In the process Merkel concocted the haircut plan that caused contagion elsewhere in the eurozone in 2010/2011.

As for the whole thing being resolved by his 2012 statement, the issue was still rumbling on well into 2015 and led to the election of Tsipras when the Greeks were given the ultimatum about leaving the euro - largely at the Germans insistence.