Relegation Thread 2017/18

Does exactly what it says on the tin - the forum for football-related discussion.

Moderators: bristolhammerfc, sicknote, -DL-, Rio, Gnome, chalks, the pink palermo

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby thejackhammer on Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:59 pm

brothernero wrote:Just looked at the table again and the remaining fixtures of each team below us, I have changed my mind. I am not quite sure 39 will be enough, not even now convinced 40 will be.

Based on our goal difference and the others teams goal difference, I think we may need to reach 41 points.

This could go down to the last game when we play Everton. If that happens then oh boy, as we all know what our record against them is like.

:arry:


Calm down, Safety at 38 points I reckon, we’re absolutely fine.

As has been said where are West Brom, Southampton, Stoke etc going to come up with more wins than they have all season.
User avatar
thejackhammer
 
Posts: 6449
Joined: Tue May 17, 2011 11:49 pm

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby brothernero on Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:59 pm

Nick Sneddon wrote:we arent going to get relegated ffs



Said every other fan the last time we were relegated, or the time before when most experts had us down for a top 6 finish. :lol:
brothernero
 
Posts: 1511
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Location: Essex

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby brothernero on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:01 pm

Jack I am calm, reason is if we were to get relegated I would not care a jot. Been there done that and always enjoyed it.

Big difference between thinking we could go down and actually caring if we do. :thup:
brothernero
 
Posts: 1511
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Location: Essex

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby DDHammer on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:03 pm

Nick Sneddon wrote:we arent going to get relegated ffs


Liverpool
Burnley
Man United
Chelsea
Arsenal
Man City
Leicester
Everton

All ahead of us in the table and still to play over the next 11 games, we're 4 points from the relegation zone, absolutely no idea how you're so certain we're safe.
User avatar
DDHammer
 
Posts: 4414
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Liam on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:03 pm

Over the last 5 game weeks teams currently in positions 9th-20th have picked up 68pts in total. An average of 6.2 each. The distribution has been pretty even with 9 getting equal of more than a point a game (only Huddersfield and WBA failing to do so).

If teams continue to pick up points at this rate, 38 points is going to be the minimum that's needed and it could easily be 40.
User avatar
Liam
 
Posts: 3486
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 6:01 pm
Location: Floating in the Channel

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby thejackhammer on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:06 pm

brothernero wrote:Jack I am calm, reason is if we were to get relegated I would not care a jot. Been there done that and always enjoyed it.

Big difference between thinking we could go down and actually caring if we do.


If you didn’t care you wouldn’t be checking and rechecking the league table and posting in this thread :wink:
User avatar
thejackhammer
 
Posts: 6449
Joined: Tue May 17, 2011 11:49 pm

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby James P on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:08 pm

brothernero wrote:Said every other fan the last time we were relegated, or the time before when most experts had us down for a top 6 finish. :lol:


Last two times we were relegated we were 19th at this stage of the season.

We won't get relegated from our position now.
User avatar
James P
 
Posts: 14339
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 12:55 pm
Location: Romford

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby brothernero on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:13 pm

Jack, Yes I would because it's a forum and I am joining in. :thup:

Trust me I don't follow West Ham based on what league we are in. I don't care if we are playing Manchester City's superstars or little old Burton.

The Premier League for far to many is the be all and end all. Not for me, for me it's just a bonus when we are there.

Being relegated could see us playing Millwall, Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield United, all games I would look forward to much much more than us playing Brighton, WBA or Newcastle.

If we stay up then great, but if we go down then oh well been there, done that and bring on Millwall.



I know a fair few Portsmouth fans and they are loving things at present.
brothernero
 
Posts: 1511
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Location: Essex

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby brothernero on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:20 pm

James P wrote:We won't get relegated from our position now.



:hush:
brothernero
 
Posts: 1511
Joined: Sun Sep 10, 2017 3:03 pm
Location: Essex

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby sutts07 on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:43 pm

Liam wrote:Over the last 5 game weeks teams currently in positions 9th-20th have picked up 68pts in total. An average of 6.2 each. The distribution has been pretty even with 9 getting equal of more than a point a game (only Huddersfield and WBA failing to do so).

If teams continue to pick up points at this rate, 38 points is going to be the minimum that's needed and it could easily be 40.


A point per game from now until the end of the season would see WBA on 32pts, Stoke 36pts and Southampton 37pts. Huddersfield would be on 38, but as you say, they are not even hitting a point per game.

Even if teams do pick up wins, they will be against teams around them. Not everyone can scramble up to 39/40 points. It just wont happen.

37/38 points will be enough to stay up. Two wins and two draws for us out of Swansea, Burnley, Southampton, Stoke and Leicester.

Plus you just know that we will spring a surprise out of Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal or Man City.

No problem at all. 12th is looking like ours. Decent really considering where we were when Moyes came in, and how many injuries we have had since.
User avatar
sutts07
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:55 pm
Location: Block 112, a far cry from CR1

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby davids cross on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:43 pm

They're not played on paper but Stoke starting to look very vulnerable.

Next 6.

A. Leicester
A. Southampton
H .Man City
H. Everton
A. Arsenal
H.Tottenham

And away to us too.

Dave !!!!!!!!!!!! Are you there Dave ? !!!!!!!
User avatar
davids cross
 
Posts: 24198
Joined: Wed Sep 28, 2005 10:20 pm
Location: Crawley, West Sussex.

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby bubbles1966 on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:48 pm

Stoke: Four of their six wins have been in home games against the bottom 5. They have only won two of 21 games against teams 1-15 and have nine games left against these teams.

Southampton;, Three of their five wins have been against teams in the bottom 6. Three of their five wins have come against teams undergoing managerial change or against 10 men. They have five fixtures left against the top 8. YTD they have collected 3 points out of 33 against that standard of opponent.

Huddersfield: have only lost one (West Ham) of nine home fixtures against teams 6-20. They have five home fixtures left against 'also rans' and strugglers. Their away form against bottom half teams is 7 points in 6 games, with three left against this calibre. On YTD form, that is actually quite a favourable looking run-in. They could finish high 30's if they run true to that form.

Brighton: Their form without the top 6 is W6 D10 L 4 = 28 points from 20 games. They have not lost at home to anyone from 7th down. They have lost every game against the top 6 and have five fixtures remaining against them. If they play to this form they'll finish on 36-ish.

Newcastle: 5 points out of 42 against the top 11. Eight of their last 11 games are against this calibre of opponent.

Watford: Four of their remaining games are away to the top 6. Their form is all over the place. No pattern, just wildly erratic.

West Ham have played eleven times against teams 3-10, and took at least a point in eight of those games.
User avatar
bubbles1966
 
Posts: 44393
Joined: Sun Apr 29, 2007 10:01 pm
Location: "It's no good having an orchestra with the 10 best guitarists if I don't have a pianist"

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Liam on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:51 pm

sutts07 wrote:
A point per game from now until the end of the season would see WBA on 32pts, Stoke 36pts and Southampton 37pts. Huddersfield would be on 38, but as you say, they are not even hitting a point per game.

Even if teams do pick up wins, they will be against teams around them. Not everyone can scramble up to 39/40 points. It just wont happen.

37/38 points will be enough to stay up. Two wins and two draws for us out of Swansea, Burnley, Southampton, Stoke and Leicester.

Plus you just know that we will spring a surprise out of Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal or Man City.

No problem at all. 12th is looking like ours. Decent really considering where we were when Moyes came in, and how many injuries we have had since.


Agreed that we are in a good position. But on average people have been picking up over a point a game in 2018. Southampton (if they continue their average for the last 5 games) would end up on 39 pts.

The fact is that points gained by the bottom half has picked up recently, if it carries on then we could be in for a high points total needed to stay up. (now watch 3 teams go down on under 34 points)
User avatar
Liam
 
Posts: 3486
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 6:01 pm
Location: Floating in the Channel

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Simply Moore on Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:51 pm

With Arnie back, Lanzini ahead of schedule and coming back, Mario albeit early days showing good signs and a good delivery, I think we will have more than enough in the remaining games to be safe.

Bar Man City, on our day, I think we can give anyone a game. Moyes is astute at using what is available to him. I don't know where the points will come from but we have enough in this team to get us safe and rebuild in the summer. If we get injuries to the likes of Arnie/Lanzini again though, we could be ****ed.

I predict we will finish 12th.
User avatar
Simply Moore
 
Posts: 3427
Joined: Fri Aug 08, 2008 11:57 am

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby prophet:marginal on Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:38 pm

dave_l wrote:The Palace supporting friends of mine are feeling very pessimistic at the moment, particularly with Zaha out for a fair few weeks. .


I'm hearing similar stuff. They had a poor weekend, relatively speaking, but I think they'll just about stay up.
User avatar
prophet:marginal
 
Posts: 25944
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:54 pm
Location: Everybody's Malcontent Nowadays

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Crouchend_Hammer on Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:41 pm

In our favour is that the last three games (which look tricky on paper) may be a lot easier given those three teams may have nothing to play for (and cup distractions in the case of Leicester and Man City)

Leicester may be chasing 7th, but hardly the same as battling relegation
Man City will have the league sewn up, and may have a champions league semi final three of four days later, so this could be heavily in our favour
Everton will likely have nothing to play for by then

Even Arsenal in the game 4th from the end may have given up on the league by then with winning the Europa League top of the list

I am not saying we will not go down, but we really should not from where we are now
Crouchend_Hammer
 
Posts: 9115
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2004 10:31 am
Location: Forest Gate

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Beavis Danzig on Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:50 pm

when the fixtures came out i never knew what the fuss was about that we had such a bad run in. you have to play them all and if you're going to play the big clubs at any time, it's the end of the season. the amount of "great escapes" that have come from lower league teams getting big results against the moneyed clubs at the end of the season is far from a statistical anomaly.
User avatar
Beavis Danzig
 
Posts: 4200
Joined: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:12 pm
Location: 22 Acacia Avenue

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby Vince on Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:53 pm

We will end up 14th-15th hopefully.
If Antonio hadn't had a brain fart against Palace and the late 'goal' against Brighton and we would be sitting pretty. I know if my grandmother had.........but these two issues could come back to haunt us.
User avatar
Vince
 
Posts: 2940
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 12:40 am
Location: Atlanta,Georgia,USA

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby sutts07 on Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:55 pm

Palace have every right to be nervous.

They need one more win than us and have Spurs, Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool in their next five!
User avatar
sutts07
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:55 pm
Location: Block 112, a far cry from CR1

Re: Relegation Thread 2017/18

Postby prophet:marginal on Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:04 pm

bubbles1966 wrote:
Newcastle: 5 points out of 42 against the top 11. Eight of their last 11 games are against this calibre of opponent.



Sheesh, that'd worry me, if I was a Mag.
User avatar
prophet:marginal
 
Posts: 25944
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:54 pm
Location: Everybody's Malcontent Nowadays

PreviousNext

Return to General Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ageing hammer, BarkingHammer75, Bobbles, catalina, cliff99claret, damo, DM, Elmo'sIronBorn, Estuary, Exiledin cardiff, Fenchurch, funky chicken, Google [Bot], HammerMan2004, I am Lawro, Liam, Max Fischer, Neil, NottingHammer6, Rasp, StoneHammer, swash, thejackhammer, West Ham Matt, westhamwalsh and 150 guests