FA Cup Draw

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FA Cup Draw

Postby Turns to Stone on Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:40 pm

FA Cup Quarter Final Draw

Wigan or Manchester City v Southampton
Leicester v Chelsea
Manchester United v Brighton
Sheffield Wednesday or Swansea City v Rochdale or Spurs

Carabao Cup Quarter Final Draw

Arsenal v West Ham
Leicester City v Manchester City
Bristol City v Manchester United
Chelsea v Bournemouth

The 'Big 4' avoid each other again I see. I'm sure it has nothing whatsoever to do with the FA wanting to fill Wembley for a weekend or anything.I'm probably turning into a boring old conspiracy theorist but they get enough money and press as it is without this happening every season.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby WorcesterWHU on Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:51 pm

I'd love to see someone clever work out the odds of both sets of 1/4 final draws making sure that those teams avoided each other both times.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby bristolhammerfc on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:01 pm

Was once told by someone who had connections to the machine manufacturers (I know, I know :oops: ) that the balls for the 'big teams' had a small bump on the surface a bit like braille so it could be set up to have a big match or avoid.

Probably a massive urban myth but who knows.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Bramwell on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:07 pm

After a weekend of inconclusive, wavy lines on the VAR at Huddersfield, too many Prem teams playing at home to minnows (e.g. Chelsea v Hull, Leicester v the Bleards, Brighton v Cov) and Dele Alli not only diving against Rochdale, the Rochdale manager giving the act tacit approval, I can't help but conclude that the FA Cup WILL eventually just eat itself.

Just as the Champions League is a pale imitation of the European Cup, and just as the Europa League will never have the allure of the ECWC and Fairs cup, so the FA Cup is having all it's charm surgically removed.

RIP FAC
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby ThreeSixes on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:07 pm

And look at Leicester, home to Chelsea, then home to Man City :?

Has anyone ever published a list of the people that conducted each draw?
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby chigwells finest on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:09 pm

Marcus & Darren Bent would be a good call for the next draw
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby claretandblue82 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:21 pm

bristolhammerfc wrote:Was once told by someone who had connections to the machine manufacturers (I know, I know :oops: ) that the balls for the 'big teams' had a small bump on the surface a bit like braille so it could be set up to have a big match or avoid.

Probably a massive urban myth but who knows.


That's probably why they feel about rather than just pick one straight out!
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Eggs'n'nuts on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:24 pm

It's also why they don't get an ordinary fan to make the draw every now and then.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Doc H Ball on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:28 pm

WorcesterWHU wrote:I'd love to see someone clever work out the odds of both sets of 1/4 final draws making sure that those teams avoided each other both times.


A boffin told me it was 36/1 for the QF draw.

For both to turn out that way is 36x36 I presume =1296/1.

(there's a 99% chance that this is wrong...)
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby James P on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:50 pm

WorcesterWHU wrote:I'd love to see someone clever work out the odds of both sets of 1/4 final draws making sure that those teams avoided each other both times.


It’s only about 20/1. It’s not that unlikely.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Wembley1966 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:51 pm

Rod Stewart did attempt to show that he wasn't involved in a fix for the Scottish Cup - but he had been drinking!

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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Denzil on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:51 pm

Is the chance of the current draw just as likely as it being any other draw?
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Clucking Bell on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:51 pm

I posted this upstairs yesterday.

The odds of the 'top four' avoiding each other are just under 23%. Four-sevenths multiplied by three-fifths multiplied by two-thirds multiplied by one.

So possible.

However, if you then ask what's the chance of this happening in both the FA Cup and League Cup (or whatever the **** it's called this week), the answer is slightly over five percent.

To do this experiment at home, take one six-shooter. Load four of the six chambers and play a single round of Russian Roulette. Assuming you haven't decorated the wall behind you, then load a fifth chamber and play again. If you're still breathing, that's the same odds as the top clubs had of avoiding each other in both cup draws.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby ThreeSixes on Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:56 pm

You can bet on the cup draw before it happens (I have seen this on Skybet). Anyone that has worked out the pattern can make a lot of money
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Crouchend_Hammer on Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:20 pm

As someone else has posted, the odds for a select group of four teams being drawn against another select group of four teams is not far under 1 in 4 (22.8%)

For the 4 best teams in the Carling Cup QF draw to be drawn against the four weakest, and then that same pattern to happen again in FA Cup is about 1 in 20. However, once the league cup draw has taken place, the odds for it happening in the FA Cup are still (22.8%)

A one in 20 chance is really not that 'unexpected' in the general scheme of things, and still far far more likely than the organisers of both the Carabao Cup and FA cup being able to fix the draw and ensure the 'silence' of everyone involved, including the guests who actually pick the balls, which change every time
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby mushy on Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:23 pm

Based on the fact that the only way you can fix a draw is to have both of the ball pickers in on it , then I would have thought it much too risky a strategy, especially when you consider that they have two different ballpickers for every round.
Thats far too many people that could be implicated, and hence far too many people that could tell tales.
Its just a nice old fashioned conspiracy theory.
Hasnt our own Sir Trevor done it recently?

Edit ahhh...I see Crouchy beat me to it.
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby hammerleroy on Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:27 pm

Warm Balls............................. :lol:
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby szola on Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:42 pm

Maybe they've just wanted to emulate the FM cup draws....
:o
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby Puff Daddy on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:08 pm

Don't anybody ever say again, I want us to have a good run in the cup, coz we never will. It is an absolute ****ing fix and a complete stitch up for anybody other than the top clubs. Not until the organisers find a fairer way of drawing the teams. This is not what you think you are watching at all. Some balls slightly smaller, heavier, lighter, warmer or colder to the touch than others, it is all possible and as 'Chalks' so rightly said yesterday. Why is it, those who pick the teams out, have to fumble about to pick out a ball and not just stick their hand straight in and chose a ball ?
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Re: FA Cup Draw

Postby steveyrockstar on Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:14 pm

Almost as shocking, presuming Spurs reach the semi-finals, they will have beaten AFC Wimbledon, Newport County, Rochdale and Swansea to reach it. That has to be on paper theoretically one of the easiest routes ever. Not to mention Wembley is currently their home stadium.

I think we'd be very justified for feeling very envious given the draws we've had over the years - not that our club always take it seriously.
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