Manuel Pellegrini: West Ham United’s 17th manager

[Danny's Dyer Acting]

Interesting insight on the Newcastle game based on xG stats (which I know some people on here LOVE). I didn't see the game but have heard a lot of people giving the performance the caveat that Newcastle should have had a hatful.

Data doesn't agree. Actually looks like a very Big Sam style performance on the defensive side. Happy to give up shots from awkward positions (for the attacking side) in order to prevent the move getting to a more dangerous situation.

[il_martello_di_genovesi]

Interesting insight on the Newcastle game based on xG stats (which I know some people on here LOVE).

I do...because they were a massive part of my work. Whether it was Newcastle v West Ham or Odense v Esbjerg!

I agree with your post btw, which is why I was surprised to see people mentioning 4-4-2 and such a problem at the back. We've conceded 3 goals in 3 games, 2 of which were from set pieces. The first against Palace was awful organisation...

In general, we aren't giving too much away from open play in the danger areas, and we are creating absolutely tons of top chances. Every chance created against Newcastle inside the box. Pretty sure it was a similar situation at home to Cardiff. Under Bilic, even though we were around the top 5 for most of the season, our Xg stats were not as good as this, because the chances we were giving away were outweighing some Payet brilliance etc. This time as you can see, we are scoring goals, creating good chances without giving the opposition as much to work with.

We've created better opportunities than our opposition in the last 3 games without giving them the same quality of opportunities against us. We are looking like a good side. .

Pellegrini has bought into his philosophy without hitting the panic button even after 4 early defeats, and now we are getting the rewards. Hopefully he is backed in the transfer market when needed, as we could really improve and start consistently challenging for the top 6/7.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

can I just add a caveat ?

stats like that are great, but Newcastle don't have a really recognised CF - Rondon isn't exactly it and the other bloke was really pushing hard (Perez ?)

wonder what the Xg stats (whatever they are) show for their game against Wolves ? similar ?

I know that we do look at match stats to give us an insight into different aspects of the game but has that been their "norm" this season ? if so then we haven't done a much different job than other managers. if not, then we did an exceptional job in defying the odds.

just wondering.........................................................

[Patito]

I would imagine it probably is the norm for Newcastle. Their game plan seems to be: sit deep and stay organised whilst defending, then get it forward quickly either by pinging it in the general direction of Rondon or by doing the same except going via the wings.

That's all they seemed to offer against us. Either long range speculative efforts or whipping crosses in. No real build up play.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

if that's the case then pat, we did nothing much different or spectacular when we played them ?

maybe we realised that we could exploit them on the counter when they were chasing the game - but then again not much different to the norm.

not knocking Pellers but maybe it isn't such a "brilliantly minded win" as noted ?

just asking and not trying to be argumentative before anyone comes on and calls me a bellend....

[il_martello_di_genovesi]

if that's the case then pat, we did nothing much different or spectacular when we played them ?

We did, because of the quality of chances we created. Our xG stats aren't completely affected by what Newcastle do in attacking sense. We've created 7/8 top quality chances in the most dangerous area of the pitch. Doesn't matter whether a team sits deep or attacks from the off. For us to create those sort of chances and convert 3 of them is very good indeed. If we created 7/8 chances like that every game against every team we would likely be in the top 4...

[Cuenca 'ammer]

i-m-d-g

we have though, the problem has been converting.........

not every game for sure, but enough games whereby taking those that we created would have pushed us on. and they were "good" chances too, not "half chances."

difference has been Chicharito, Perez and Anderson putting away those that Arnie and Antonio missed recently..

(not a knock on them per se - just stating what I remember seeing)

[il_martello_di_genovesi]

Of course, but that’s what the xG’s are there to show. If we were creating those chances every week and not scoring it would be clear we have a problem with our strikers, but generally we haven’t had too many issues scoring goals. On the other side of that if Newcastle let teams create those chances against them every week, they will probably end up relegated.

We haven’t had numbers like this since I’ve been working with xG’s. Even during our good Bilic season the xG’s suggested we were riding our luck because we were clinical with chances but giving away a ridiculous amount of good chances. We finished 7th, but ultimately the xG’s were right by identifying conceding goals would be our problem, and you only have to look at the Swansea and Stoke matches later on in that season to see that. Although most of could just by watching our matches.

Pellegrini is doing a fantastic job.

[StackerJJ]

We did, because of the quality of chances we created. Our xG stats aren't completely affected by what Newcastle do in attacking sense. We've created 7/8 top quality chances in the most dangerous area of the pitch. Doesn't matter whether a team sits deep or attacks from the off. For us to create those sort of chances and convert 3 of them is very good indeed. If we created 7/8 chances like that every game against every team we would likely be in the top 4...

Exactly, our ability to get into good goalscoring positions is making all the difference, as you say if we're having 7/8 good changes and putting only 30% of those away thats 2/3 goals to the good. Before under past managers we may create 1/2 a game and if our conversion rate was the same we'd end up with 0/1 goals, thats more luck than anything.

Also better for the fans getting us on the end of our seat more.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

i-n-d-g

I thought that early doors our problems stemmed from not scoring but creating chances - albeit maybe on the same level.

and what about conceding ?

what do the xG's show there ?

I think that people (at least me) would be interested in seeing if there was an upward/downward swing in goal chances created/conceded to see if we are making improvements overall. or are we in a upward wing offensively but in a downward swing defensively.

maybe we could have a thread like we do for assists etc and players on loan. ie. one specifically designed to show weekly analysis of our games in these terms.

any chance and/or do you think it would be a good idea ?

I know there isn't a like for like comparison against opponents and it would be too detailed to show where we are as opposed to where our competitors are but I think something like this would be great. I am not an anorak but would like to see where we are as opposed to where we were, if the trend is good/bad and/or if we are making progress in specific areas. or is there a site that shows that already ?

cheers it's fascinating stuff..

[Patito]

if that's the case then pat, we did nothing much different or spectacular when we played them ?

maybe we realised that we could exploit them on the counter when they were chasing the game - but then again not much different to the norm.

not knocking Pellers but maybe it isn't such a "brilliantly minded win" as noted ?

just asking and not trying to be argumentative before anyone comes on and calls me a bellend....

It depends how you interpret the stats really.

For me, it shows that Pellegrini and his team did their homework, they worked out how Newcastle played (particularly going forward) and based on that we came up with a plan which nullified them whilst also providing our own threat - ie. we scored 3 and could/should have had 3/4 more.

Generally, to achieve an xG score of 3.1 is pretty good going in an attacking sense.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

being Devil's Advocate here though, I would expect ANY PL manager (or other) to scout the opponent, identify their weaknesses and come up with a game plan to nullify their threats and try to exploit their weaknesses.

now some managers have the talent to do that, others don't no matter how much "game film" you analyse.

slightly off topic but by way of an example:

Texans v the Colts this past weekend. we have a great pass rush. so the Colts got the ball out of the qb's hand as soon as possible and/or most times put an extra lineman in to help. that meant they had less help for their attacking players but TY Hilton had a field day.

Our qb doesn't identify the blitz well and we have a pretty crappy o-line. they blitzed and sacked the qb all day, their qb got rid of the ball early where he could, but when he did get time he picked our secondary apart.

also our tendency to run on first down is one of the highest in the league so on first down the stacked the line, consequently we were left in 2nd and 3rd and long situations a lot of the time, which meant we had to throw more which meant they could blitz on 2nd an 3rd which they did.

it all comes down to personnel but mostly personnel AND execution.

we lost by the way.

[Patito]

being Devil's Advocate here though, I would expect ANY PL manager (or other) to scout the opponent, identify their weaknesses and come up with a game plan to nullify their threats and try to exploit their weaknesses.

So why doesn't every manager win every game? How come Benitez didn't come up with an effective plan to beat us? Or Warnock/Hodgson/Dyche recently?

now some managers have the talent to do that, others don't no matter how much "game film" you analyse.

slightly off topic but by way of an example:

Texans v the Colts this past weekend. we have a great pass rush. so the Colts got the ball out of the qb's hand as soon as possible and/or most times put an extra lineman in to help. that meant they had less help for their attacking players but TY Hilton had a field day.

Our qb doesn't identify the blitz well and we have a pretty crappy o-line. they blitzed and sacked the qb all day, their qb got rid of the ball early where he could, but when he did get time he picked our secondary apart.

also our tendency to run on first down is one of the highest in the league so on first down the stacked the line, consequently we were left in 2nd and 3rd and long situations a lot of the time, which meant we had to throw more which meant they could blitz on 2nd an 3rd which they did.

it all comes down to personnel but mostly personnel AND execution.

we lost by the way.

Still look like making the play-offs though hopefully

[Cuenca 'ammer]

because pat, you and I know that not everything is as cut and dried as that.

managers can plan and as I said, it takes personnel AND execution.

I am not sure that for example, Silva planned for Pickford to make the dumb gk error that he did that cost them 3 points.

I am sure that Pellers didn't plan when we had that breakaway against City I think it was, for Arnie to either not play the ball to Chicharito or hit the keeper. or Antonio to hit the outside of the post when he did.

fine margins and all of that.

that's why City will not go undefeated this year or I expect will the Bin Dippers.

an injury to Yarmolenko saw us get a look at Diangana. an injury to Sanches saw us move Rice permanently to DM etc. etc. etc.

"No plan survives first contact with the enemy. What matters is how quickly the leader is able to adapt."


"In preparing for battle, I have always found than plans are useless but planning is indispensable."

etc. etc. etc.



yeah we should but we had a chance to get a leg up on the Pats. going up there again isn't high on our agenda. plus playing for home field and/or a bye - and we're now 3-2 in the division with the Colts both won against each other.

oh no !!!!! we're AT the Jets this week on Saturday - and AT the Eagles the following week.....

a lot West Ham-esque.....



not a great week to have to have a tooth pulled this Friday..maybe the pain killers will help !!!!!

[Patito]

because pat, you and I know that not everything is as cut and dried as that.

managers can plan and as I said, it takes personnel AND execution.

I am not sure that for example, Silva planned for Pickford to make the dumb gk error that he did that cost them 3 points.

I am sure that Pellers didn't plan when we had that breakaway against City I think it was, for Arnie to either not play the ball to Chicharito or hit the keeper. or Antonio to hit the outside of the post when he did.

fine margins and all of that.

that's why City will not go undefeated this year or I expect will the Bin Dippers.

an injury to Yarmolenko saw us get a look at Diangana. an injury to Sanches saw us move Rice permanently to DM etc. etc. etc.

"No plan survives first contact with the enemy. What matters is how quickly the leader is able to adapt."


"In preparing for battle, I have always found than plans are useless but planning is indispensable."

etc. etc. etc.



yeah we should but we had a chance to get a leg up on the Pats. going up there again isn't high on our agenda. plus playing for home field and/or a bye - and we're now 3-2 in the division with the Colts both won against each other.

oh no !!!!! we're AT the Jets this week on Saturday - and AT the Eagles the following week.....

a lot West Ham-esque.....



not a great week to have to have a tooth pulled this Friday..maybe the pain killers will help !!!!!

Of course but plenty of what El Pel has planned is coming off, finally. Even though the results have been really good recently there is still room for improvement. However, in my eyes, we have a clear and distinguished style of play and it's great to watch. Even during the awful start we had I said it would all come together, results and decent performances. Long may it continue.


It's 'squeaky bum time' but I think you'll do it, you've just about got enough wins already. JJ Watt will drag you over the line.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

I would like to see that bloody offside thing sorted..I am not a great big fan of that, as I think intelligent players and managers will figure it out pretty damn quick...

still - I need to learn patience Grasshopper...



what a fantastic human being that JJ Watt is....he's from Wisconsin originally but if he chooses to stay in 'ouston after his football career, he'll never buy another thing in his entire life.

not sure if it made it into the newspapers or that in the UK but I was staying there finishing up before I came back here permanently.

I was house sitting my Leeds mate house while he and his wife were on holiday. first one in 10 years together.

anyway I am sure everyone knows the devastation.

He also has raised over $37 million ($100,000 of which he personally donated) to help Houston recover from Hurricane Harvey, surpassing his initial goal of $200,000.

He initially offered 100K and asked some other 'ouston athletes to match it....it took off from there.....

The Charity Classic is a softball game held at Constellation Field, in Sugar Land, Texas, in which Texans players participate in a game, and Home Run Derby to raise money for the foundation.[108] The inaugural Charity Classic game was in 2013, and the 2014 Charity Classic raised over $436,433 towards his foundation.[109] On August 26, 2014, Watt received the Texans Spirit of the Bull Community Award.[110] On November 14, 2014, Watt was nominated for the NFL's Salute to Service Award that honors either a coach, player, or owner for their efforts in supporting the country's service men and women.[111] Due to the extremely good turnout in 2014, the annual Charity Classic has been moved to Minute Maid Park, home of the Houston Astros. The 2015 event raised over $640,000. For the 2017 game, Watt invited Arnold Schwarzenegger and swimmer Simone Manuel, a two-time Olympic gold medalist and native of Houston.[112]

Watt is also known for his interactions with children. On July 2, 2011, the Berry family was traveling home from a vacation in Colorado Springs. The parents, Joshua and Robin Berry were killed in a head-on collision while also leaving their two sons, Peter and Aaron handicapped. Their daughter, Willa, suffered minor injuries. Watt met the children at a fundraiser and grew close with them. He played wheelchair basketball with them and mimed rolling a wheelchair after sacking a quarterback in a 2012 game. The mime was an agreed upon signal between the Berry children and Watt as a post-sack celebration.[113] In 2012, following the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, Watt found out some of the families that were affected were in the Houston area. He invited them out on the field to hang out and throw the football. He then proceeded to give them signed merchandise that he had worn in previous games.[114] In October 2015, he dressed up as Batman to surprise kids at the Texas Children's Hospital for a Halloween party.[115]

After the Santa Fe High School shooting on May 18, 2018 that left eight students and two teachers dead, Watt offered to pay for the funerals of the dead.[118]

[Patito]

I didn't know about that Cuenca but that is outstanding from him

[il_martello_di_genovesi]

and what about conceding ?

what do the xG's show there ?

Depends if you are looking at goals conceded or chances being given away. Our xG stats against Crystal Palace were still positive, but not as high as the Newcastle match. Funnily enough, we conceded twice against Crystal Palace and kept a clean sheet against Newcastle, but we actually restricted Crystal Palace to less decent chances than we did Newcastle. This is why I said in the Fulham thread that I don't really see a massive problem defensively. We conceded from 2 set pieces, instead of from loads of clear chances that we were giving away.

The xG's basically are there to try and give an indication of overall performance and how a team is playing. It's good at finding teams that are performing well but not getting results instantly and teams that are riding their luck.

An example in League One, that Shrewsbury were coming out quite well on xG's, but found themselves in the bottom 4. The xG's suggested they were playing better than their current position suggested and that continuing to play like that would likely see them pick up. They continued to record those numbers and now have started to get the results along with it. (Are 17th but a good few points clearer of the bottom 4). Obviously it's not 100% and a team could still play well, be unlucky and have a bad season.

Pellegrini does seem to be finding a good balance at the moment, and deserves plenty of credit for that.

[Cuenca 'ammer]

cheers mate..

that's bloody informative..

although I look at the weekend games as to possession etc. this seems like more of an indicator of "trends" rather than an actual "what happened." it would be nice to take a look at both and see if there is a correlation of the two.

i..e. xG's show this this and this, and a week by week "look" sees maybe a reflection in terms of stats.

is there a site that covers this or is it because you work in the industry that you know it ?

as mentioned before though, all the trends, planning etc. don't account for the eventualities.

qb hits wide receiver in the hands who makes a difficult catch, ball inadvertently ends up in the corner-back's hands who runs it back for a 6 pointer. stat shows interception normally....

or Jordan Pickford has a brain fart - lose 3 points....



cheers though for the info.

appreciated.

[TommyHammer]

Not comparing us to Tottenham at all but done a tad bit of looking back this morning and saw that after 16 games for Pochettino's first season, Tottenham were only 3 points better off after 16 games in 14/15 (24) than we are in 17/18 under Pellegrini's first season (21). I think this just reinforces the saying 'Rome wasn't built in a day.'