Absolutely not. And no, I haven’t been smoking the good stuff or anything else.
Because despite EVERYTHING going against us, including injuries, suspensions, arrests, failed transfers, dropped points etc. we remain only three points from safety. And despite only getting a point from our last two fixtures, we did show some fight and skill, in difficult circumstances. Which is in contrast to what was on display versus Sunderland and Man U.Some team members seem to have lost respect for the manager and the club, which undeniably is a worry. But overall, most of the squad still exhibits the fight to stay up, based on the last two fixtures.
BUT - and it is a VERY big but - my confidence in our ability to beat the drop rests entirely on the willingness of Allardyce, or whoever replaces him, to COMPLETELY change Kevin Nolan’s role at the club. That means not only stripping him of the captaincy but confining him to the subs bench for the rest of the season for cameo appearances at best.
This team MUST find a new leader – someone who is impassioned, yet responsible, and someone who can organize the defence and midfield. Answer: Winston Reid, once fit, who leads by example. Reid as captain would eliminate the excuse of "needing" Nolan on the pitch to "organize and motivate".
As for the mega-million question, should Sam stay or go? Like many people, ideally I’d love to be shot of him for so many reasons. But realistically, I also accept that there are very few tailor-made replacements around, apart from perhaps Malkay McKay who I felt was doing fine at Cardiff. But even with him, we would not be assured of staying up.
Perhaps the real issue is not whether Sam should stay or go. Maybe the real issue is whether Sam finally accepts that Nolan should, at best, only be on the subs bench from now on. If Sam is honest and man enough to accept that, then perhaps it makes sense to keep him. If not, then I’d prefer McKay - or even Steve Clarke - as soon as possible.
Let’s examine some facts. We have Carroll, Collins, Tomkins and Vaz Te all to come back in the next few weeks. Possibly Reid before month end. Downing has returned and looks up for it . And one or two new faces are likely to appear via the window. Hopefully Noble won’t be out for too long. So we should end the month with a considerably stronger side than that which competed over the festive period.
So what would a side WITH Carroll and WITHOUT Nolan look like? It would be a side that would score in every game. Stick Maiga (or a successful transfer target) in behind Carroll in the place normally filled by Nolan and we would be much better off. Am I a huge fan of Maiga? Nope. But he has shown signs in recent matches of being able to produce the goods. He and Carroll together would provide the tempo, pace and unpredictability that has been woefully absent with Nolan in the side this season. And if we can find in this window a striker better than Maiga to accompany Carroll, all the better.
THE Bottom line is that I don’t think Nolan’s drop in form this season is solely down to Carroll’s absence. Nolan is getting on, he’s off the pace, and probably past it as a Premier League striker now, temper aside. If Nolan was still good enough to compete at the top level he would not be missing the abundance of chances he has this season. You can argue that Fulham’s keeper made a great save. Maybe. But in my view, not for the first time, Nolan should have buried that header.
The bottom line, to me, is that whether or not we avoid relegation depends less on whether or not we sack Sam, and more on whether or not Nolan is 'relegated' to the bench, regardless of who the manager is.
I’m not a fan of Allardyce, especially in the top flight. But between him and Nolan, he is the lesser of two evils. Nolan is past his BPL sell by date, period. He doesn’t score or run fast enough, or control his temper well enough to warrant being a starter in the top flight anymore. If West Ham’s manager - whoever that turns out to be - can accept that, then we have a realistic chance at survival.
If not, then indeed, we ARE toast. With or without the Marmite…
It was absolutely gutting to lose to Fulham in that fashion, especially having started so brightly. Given the nature of how we conceded the equaliser, we can’t be sure that we would have at least kept a point had we had 11 men on the pitch. But given that it took Fulham ages to get the winner, my gut feeling is that we would have drawn the match, thereby keeping Fulham well in the mix.
But, as gutting as it was, if Nolan’s sending off causes the manager and club owners to have a "catharsis" and come to the conclusion that Nolan is no longer fit to play a meaningful role at West Ham, it ironically could be what saves our season. The root of so many of our problems this season, injuries aside, truly IS Nolan’s lack of discipline and lack of skill at this level.
Getting out of difficult situations means getting out of one’s comfort zone. It requires challenging long-held assumptions and being willing to make SIGNIFICANT changes, even if such changes might be "uncomfortable" for some, including the manager.
Is Allardyce a big cause of our problems? Undoubtedly. But the solution might lie in relegating Nolan to the fringes of the squad, as opposed to ditching Sam. That may be painful for both Sam and the owners to accept. But we need to relegate Nolan before he relegates us.
Finally, take a look at the fixture list. I believe we can get something from the Cardiff and Newcastle games as we should have a couple of players back from injury or in from the window. Away to Chelsea I’ll write off, even though we’re not in a position to write any game off now. But more importantly, check out February. By which time we "should" have a relatively fit squad.
Swansea, Villa, Norwich and Southampton. Easy? Nope. Winnable? Yes. Keep the faith. No fat lady about yet…
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